Potassium carbonate granules

Market Intelligence on Granular Potassium Carbonate

1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: Recent mainstream transaction prices for granular potassium carbonate have fluctuated in the range of RMB 7,800-8,200 per ton. Some high-end quotes have exceeded RMB 8,300 per ton, representing an increase of approximately 3.2% compared to the beginning of the month.
- International Market: FOB China port prices remain stable at USD 1,150-1,200 per ton. Affected by fluctuations in shipping costs, CIF prices in Southeast Asia have slightly increased to USD 1,250-1,300 per ton.

2. Supply and Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Domestic major production enterprises maintain an operating rate above 85%. Leading companies such as Qinghai Salt Lake and Jiangxi Jinghao are releasing capacity steadily. However, some small and medium-sized manufacturers have suspended operations for maintenance due to environmental inspections, reducing market circulation by approximately 10%.
- On the import front, arrivals from major sources such as Chile and Israel have decreased by 15% month-on-month due to international logistics delays. Port inventory has dropped to a low level of 23,000 tons.
- Demand Side:
- The glass industry accounts for over 40% of demand. Recent expansion in photovoltaic glass production has driven demand growth by 8%.
- Demand from the ceramics and pharmaceutical industries remains stable, accounting for approximately 25% and 15% respectively.
- Export orders have increased by 12% month-on-month, primarily flowing to Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

3. Cost Drivers
- The price of raw material potassium chloride continues to rise. The ex-factory price of 60% powder potassium chloride in Qinghai has increased to RMB 3,200-3,300 per ton, up 22% year-on-year, driving up the production cost of potassium carbonate by approximately RMB 400 per ton.
- Energy costs (natural gas and electricity) account for about 18% of production costs. Recent price fluctuations have had a limited impact on comprehensive costs.

4. Policy and Industry Trends
- Environmental policies are becoming stricter. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have been subject to production restrictions due to non-compliance with emission standards, further increasing industry concentration.
- Industry associations are calling on companies to stabilize prices and avoid malicious competition, although low-priced supplies still appear sporadically in the market.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-term Support:
- The supply side is affected by environmental production restrictions and logistics delays, resulting in tight market circulation. Combined with the high level of raw material potassium chloride prices, cost support is strong.
- On the demand side, continuous expansion in photovoltaic glass production and growth in export orders create pull factors.
2. Potential Risks:
- Downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. Some small and medium-sized glass enterprises have delayed procurement, which may lead to a phase of transaction stagnation.
- If international logistics recover, increased import volumes may alleviate the supply tightness.

Price Forecast
- Next 1 Month: It is expected that granular potassium carbonate prices will remain in a high-range oscillation, with mainstream transaction prices operating in the RMB 8,000-8,300 per ton range. High-end quotes may test breaking through RMB 8,400 per ton.
- Next 3 Months: If raw material potassium chloride prices remain firm and there is no large-scale production resumption on the supply side, the price center may shift upward to RMB 8,200-8,500 per ton. If downstream resistance intensifies or import volumes recover, prices may correct to the RMB 7,800-8,100 per ton range.

Key Points to Monitor
1. Changes in the operating rates of leading enterprises such as Qinghai Salt Lake;
2. International market prices of potassium chloride and import arrival volumes;
3. Expansion progress and procurement pace in the photovoltaic glass industry;
4. The enforcement strength of environmental policies and the resumption of production by small and medium-sized manufacturers.