Elastomer 210/220

Market Intelligence on Elastomers 210/220I. Price Trends1. **Domestic Market**: In the past week, prices for elastomers 210/220 in the domestic market have shown a slight upward trend. The mainstream quote in the East China region increased from 12,800 RMB/ton to 13,200 RMB/ton, a rise of approximately 3.1%; prices in the South China region also rose in tandem, from 12,600 RMB/ton to 12,950 RMB/ton, a gain of 2.8%.2. **International Market**: The CFR China price in the Asian region remained stable in the range of USD 1,650–1,700/ton, while the FOB Rotterdam price in the European market held steady at EUR 1,950–2,000/ton, with no significant fluctuations observed.II. Supply and Demand Dynamics1. **Supply Side**: - Operating rates at major domestic producers are maintained at 85%–90%. Some units experienced temporary load reductions due to routine maintenance, but overall supply remains stable. - Import arrivals decreased by 12% month-on-month, primarily because overseas suppliers prioritized orders from the European and American markets, reducing allocations to the Asian region.2. **Demand Side**: - Downstream industries, including footwear materials and automotive parts, have entered their traditional peak season, with order volumes increasing by 15%–20% month-on-month, providing solid support for demand for elastomers 210/220. - Demand in the modified plastics sector remains stable, but procurement pace has slowed among some small and medium-sized enterprises due to environmental regulations.III. Costs and Profits1. **Raw Material Costs**: The price of the main raw material, butadiene, rose by 5% this week to 9,800 RMB/ton, while styrene prices remained stable at 8,500 RMB/ton, leading to increased cost pressures.2. **Production Profits**: Based on current prices, the gross profit for domestic production of elastomers 210/220 is estimated at 800–1,000 RMB/ton, down 10% from the previous week, but still within a reasonable range.IV. Inventory Levels1. **Producer Inventories**: Sample enterprise inventory days have dropped to 7–9 days, falling below the safety inventory threshold, with some manufacturers exhibiting a reluctance to sell.2. **Port Inventories**: Total port inventories in East and South China stand at approximately 23,000 tons, down 8% month-on-month, indicating an accelerated pace of destocking.V. Related Policies and Industry Developments1. Domestic environmental inspection teams have been deployed to certain chemical industrial parks, raising expectations of regional production restrictions, although there is no direct impact on elastomer production at this time.2. The European Union has initiated anti-dumping investigations on elastomer products from certain Southeast Asian countries, which may indirectly benefit domestic exports.VI. Analysis and Assessment1. **Short-Term Drivers**: The supply-demand structure is relatively tight, with continued release of peak-season downstream demand and support from the cost side, suggesting further upside potential for prices.2. **Risk Factors**: Attention should be paid to fluctuations in butadiene prices, the pace of recovery in overseas supply, and the sustainability of downstream orders.VII. Price Forecast1. **Domestic Market**: Prices for elastomers 210/220 in the domestic market are expected to continue a slight upward trend next week, with mainstream quotes in the East China region potentially rising to 13,500–13,800 RMB/ton.2. **International Market**: Prices in the Asian region are expected to remain stable, while prices in the European market may edge up by EUR 50–100/ton due to energy cost influences.