Sodium trichloroisocyanurate

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. **Price Trends**
- **Domestic Market:** The price of sodium trichloroisocyanurate has recently shown a trend of stability with an upward tendency. Taking the Shandong region as an example, the mainstream quotation for industrial-grade product with 90% content has risen from 8,500 - 8,800 RMB per ton at the beginning of the month to the current 9,000 - 9,300 RMB per ton, representing an increase of approximately 5.5% - 5.7%.
- **International Market:** In Asia, Chinese export prices have followed the domestic market upward, with FOB prices rising from 1,200 - 1,250 USD per ton at the beginning of the month to 1,280 - 1,320 USD per ton. In European and American markets, influenced by price transmission from Asia and local demand, prices have also seen a slight increase, with import prices in the US market rising by approximately 50 - 80 USD per ton.

2. **Supply Situation**
- **Domestic Capacity:** The overall capacity utilization rate remains around 75% - 80%. Some enterprises have seen a decline in operating rates due to environmental inspections and equipment maintenance. For instance, a large enterprise in Henan province suspended production for maintenance for about 10 days, resulting in a reduction of market supply by approximately 500 tons.
- **New Capacity:** There is no new capacity being released into the market. The incremental supply relies primarily on the capacity release from existing enterprises.

3. **Demand Situation**
- **Domestic Demand:** Demand in the downstream water treatment industry is growing steadily. With the arrival of summer, the demand for disinfection from swimming pools, water parks, and other venues has increased, driving part of the demand. Meanwhile, demand in the industrial circulating water treatment sector has also risen, mainly for water treatment in the chemical, power, and other industries.
- **International Demand:** Southeast Asia has entered the rainy season, with frequent floods and other natural disasters increasing the demand for drinking water disinfection and public health prevention, thereby boosting imports of sodium trichloroisocyanurate. In Europe and America, driven by economic recovery, demand for disinfectants in industrial production and public health sectors has also grown.

4. **Cost Aspects**
- **Main Raw Materials:** The price of cyanuric acid has remained stable recently, with current market prices ranging from 6,000 - 6,300 RMB per ton. This provides limited cost support for sodium trichloroisocyanurate.
- **Liquid Chlorine:** Prices have fluctuated but generally trended upward, rising from 200 - 250 RMB per ton at the beginning of the month to the current 280 - 320 RMB per ton, increasing the production cost of sodium trichloroisocyanurate.

Analysis and Judgment

1. **Reasons for Price Increase**
- **Supply Side:** The suspension of some enterprises for maintenance has led to a reduction in market supply, while the demand side shows an overall growth trend. The imbalance between supply and demand is the main cause of the price increase.
- **Cost Side:** The rise in liquid chlorine prices has increased production costs. To ensure profit margins, enterprises have widely raised product prices.

2. **Market Supply-Demand Relationship**
- The current market is in a tight balance state, with supply slightly less than demand. As summer demand continues to be released, if the supply side cannot recover in time, the supply-demand contradiction will further intensify.

3. **Competitive Landscape**
- Competition in the domestic market is fierce, with enterprises competing mainly on price and quality. In the international market, Chinese products possess certain price advantages; however, as capacity in other countries is released, competitive pressure is gradually increasing.

Forecast

1. **Price Trends**
- **Short-term:** Affected by the tight balance between supply and demand and cost support, the price of sodium trichloroisocyanurate will continue to show a trend of stability with an upward tendency. The domestic market price is expected to remain at 9,000 - 9,500 RMB per ton, and the international FOB price is expected to be between 1,280 - 1,350 USD.
- **Medium-term:** If supply-side enterprises resume normal production after maintenance ends and downstream demand growth slows down, prices may experience a certain degree of correction, but the magnitude of the correction will be limited.

2. **Supply Situation**
- It is expected that within the next two weeks, some enterprises suspended for maintenance will gradually resume production, and market supply will increase. However, overall supply will remain relatively tight.

3. **Demand Situation**
- **Domestic Demand:** Demand in the summer water treatment industry will remain robust, with demand expected to peak in August. Afterwards, as temperatures drop, demand will gradually decline.
- **International Demand:** Demand in Southeast Asia will continue to grow, while demand in Europe and America will remain stable. Overall international market demand is expected to remain at a high level.