D30

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. **Supply Side**
- The operating rate of major domestic producers remains around 75%, down by 3 percentage points from the previous month. Some enterprises have reduced output due to equipment maintenance and environmental production restrictions.
- Regarding imports, the number of vessels arriving has increased recently; however, actual available supply has seen limited growth due to delayed customs clearance caused by quality inspection issues for some cargo.
2. **Demand Side**
- The overall operating rate of downstream industries remains stable. The coatings industry, which accounts for the largest share of demand, maintains an operating rate of over 80%, providing certain support for D30 demand.
- Demand in the adhesives industry has seen slight growth. Influenced by seasonal factors, some enterprises have advanced inventory building, driving an increase in D30 procurement volumes.
- The export market remains stable, with main export destinations being Southeast Asia and South Asia. Order volumes are roughly flat compared to the previous month.
3. **Cost Side**
- Raw material prices exhibit minimal fluctuation, remaining within a relatively stable range, offering limited cost support for D30.
- Energy costs have seen a slight increase due to rising natural gas prices; however, enterprises have offset some of this pressure by optimizing production processes.
4. **Inventory Side**
- Producer inventory levels are low, maintained at around 15 days, down by 2 days from the previous month, primarily due to reduced supply and stable demand.
- Trader inventories have increased slightly, as some traders proactively build stock based on bullish market expectations. However, overall inventory levels remain within a reasonable range.
5. **Price Side**
- Recent D30 market prices show a trend of stability with slight increases. Main transaction prices range between 12,000–12,500 CNY/ton, up by 200–300 CNY/ton from the previous month.
- Regional price differences are minimal. Prices in the East China region are slightly higher than those in South China and North China, mainly due to differences in logistics costs and supply-demand dynamics.

Analysis and Judgment
1. **Supply**: Reduced supply due to lower producer operating rates and delayed customs clearance of imported cargo is unlikely to ease in the short term, providing certain support for prices.
2. **Demand**: Stable operating rates in downstream industries, particularly growing demand from the coatings and adhesives sectors, drive increased D30 procurement, indicating strong demand-side performance.
3. **Cost**: Stable raw material prices and limited impact from rising energy costs mean that cost-side support for prices is weak.
4. **Inventory**: Low producer inventories and increased trader inventories indicate that overall inventory levels remain controllable, but attention should be paid to the rate at which traders digest their stock.
5. **Price**: Driven by reduced supply and increased demand, prices show a trend of stability with slight increases. However, the magnitude of the increase is limited due to insufficient cost support and intense market competition.

Forecast
1. **Short-term (1–2 weeks)**: The tight supply situation will persist amid stable demand, with prices expected to continue rising slightly. Main transaction prices may break through 12,500 CNY/ton.
2. **Medium-term (1–2 months)**: As equipment maintenance periods end and imported cargo gradually clears customs, supply will increase. Price growth may slow down, potentially leading to slight corrections, though the downward adjustment is expected to be limited.
3. **Long-term (3–6 months)**: If downstream demand continues to grow, particularly sustained strong demand from the coatings and adhesives industries, prices are likely to remain at higher levels. Conversely, if demand growth falters, prices may fall back below 12,000 CNY/ton.