D-Mannitol

Recent Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. **Price Trends**
- The domestic market price of D-mannitol has recently shown a slight upward fluctuation. As of now, the mainstream market quotes are between RMB 18,000 and 20,000 per ton, representing an increase of approximately 3% - 5% compared to the same period last month.
- In the international market, driven by global supply chain tensions and increased demand in certain regions, the price of D-mannitol has also risen. The FOB (Free On Board) price is between USD 2,500 and 2,800 per ton, marking an increase of approximately 4% - 6%.

2. **Supply Situation**
- The operating rates of major domestic production enterprises are maintained at around 70% - 80%. Some enterprises have seen fluctuations in output due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues. Specifically, a large enterprise in Shandong reduced its production load recently due to rising costs caused by increased prices of corn starch.
- Regarding imports, due to persistently high international shipping costs and adjustments in export policies in some countries, the import volume of D-mannitol has decreased. Customs data shows that import volumes last month dropped by approximately 10% compared to the previous month.

3. **Demand Situation**
- The food industry is the primary consumer of D-mannitol. Recently, with the arrival of the peak production season for summer beverages and confectionery, food enterprises have significantly increased their demand for D-mannitol. Some large food companies have ramped up procurement to meet production needs.
- Demand from the pharmaceutical industry has also maintained steady growth, particularly in the production of tablets, capsules, and other medications as an excipient. Additionally, the advancement of some new drug R&D projects has further driven demand for D-mannitol.

4. **Inventory Situation**
- The overall inventory levels of major domestic traders and production enterprises are at a medium-to-low level. Due to increased demand and supply fluctuations, some traders exhibit a reluctance to sell, leading to faster inventory turnover.
- Regarding port inventories, affected by the decrease in import volumes, port stock levels have declined and are currently at a relatively low position.

Analysis and Judgment

1. **Reasons for Price Increases**
- Cost Push: The rise in corn starch prices has increased the production costs of D-mannitol. To protect profit margins, enterprises have collectively raised product prices.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics: Growth in the food and pharmaceutical sectors on the demand side, coupled with unstable operating rates of domestic enterprises and reduced import volumes on the supply side, has tightened market supply and demand, driving price increases.
- International Factors: Rising international market prices and high shipping costs have exerted a certain transmission effect on the domestic market, further supporting the upward trend in domestic prices.

2. **Market Risk Points**
- Raw Material Price Volatility: Corn starch prices are highly sensitive to factors such as climate and policy. A significant drop in prices could alleviate cost pressures for D-mannitol enterprises, potentially leading to a price correction.
- Demand Changes: If demand drops significantly after the peak summer food production season, or if pharmaceutical industry demand growth falls short of expectations, the market supply-demand balance may ease, subjecting prices to downward pressure.
- Policy Factors: Changes in national regulatory policies for the food and pharmaceutical industries could impact the market demand and application scope of D-mannitol, thereby affecting its price.

Forecast

1. **Short-term (1 - 2 months)**
- Prices are expected to continue a slight upward trend. Given the still tight market supply-demand balance and the difficulty for raw material prices to drop significantly in the short term, enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. However, as the peak summer food production season gradually comes to an end, the momentum of demand growth may slow down, and the pace of price increases will narrow.

2. **Medium-term (3 - 6 months)**
- Prices may exhibit high-level volatility. If domestic enterprise operating rates gradually recover and import volumes increase, market supply will be supplemented to some extent, alleviating supply-demand contradictions. Meanwhile, with the new corn harvest, corn starch prices may decline, reducing production costs for D-mannitol and exerting downward pressure on prices. However, the steady growth of pharmaceutical industry demand will continue to support prices. Prices are expected to fluctuate slightly around current levels.

3. **Long-term (Over 6 months)**
- Price trends will depend on the adjustment of market supply-demand balance. If demand in the food and pharmaceutical industries continues to grow and domestic capacity expansion remains limited, prices are likely to maintain an upward trend. However, if new substitute products emerge or significant changes occur in industry demand, prices may face considerable downward pressure.