1,3-Butadiene

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence1. **Price Trends**- Domestic Market: The mainstream market price of butadiene in China has recently shown an upward trend with fluctuations. In the East China region, the market price of butadiene has risen from [X] yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to the current [X + Y] yuan/ton, representing an increase of approximately [Z]%; in the South China region, the price has increased from [X1] yuan/ton to [X1 + Y1] yuan/ton, with a rise of [Z1]%.- International Market: Butadiene prices in Asia have also risen, with the FOB Korea price increasing from [A] USD/ton at the beginning of the month to [A + B] USD/ton; prices in Europe have also followed suit, with the FD Northwest Europe price rising from [C] EUR/ton to [C + D] EUR/ton.2. **Supply Situation**- Domestic Facilities: Some butadiene production facilities have maintenance plans or are operating at reduced load. For example, the [X] ten thousand tons/year facility of [Company Name 1] began shutdown for maintenance on [Specific Date 1], with an expected maintenance duration of [Number of Days 1]; the facility of [Company Name 2] has reduced its load to [X]%, resulting in a decrease in the overall domestic supply of butadiene.- Import Situation: Recent import arrivals have been relatively limited. Due to higher international market prices, traders have a strong reluctance to sell, making available import resources tight.3. **Demand Situation**- Downstream Industries: Demand in main downstream industries such as rubber and plastics is performing well. Tire enterprises are maintaining high operating rates, increasing demand for synthetic rubber, which in turn drives butadiene demand. For example, the average operating rate of full steel tire enterprises has reached [X]%, and the average operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises is [X]%, both of which have increased compared to the previous month.- Synthetic Rubber Market: Prices of synthetic rubbers such as SBR and BR have followed the upward trend of butadiene prices. The market trading atmosphere is decent, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, providing support for butadiene demand.4. **Cost Aspects**- Raw Material Prices: Prices of main raw materials for butadiene, such as naphtha and light hydrocarbons, have not fluctuated significantly recently. The cost side has limited support for butadiene prices but has not significantly suppressed the price increase.Analysis and Judgment1. **Supply Side**: Domestic facility maintenance and reduced load operations, combined with limited import supplies, have made the overall market supply tight. This is one of the main factors driving the increase in butadiene prices. It is expected that the supply shortage will not be effectively alleviated before the maintenance facilities resume production.2. **Demand Side**: Demand in downstream industries such as rubber and plastics is robust, especially in the tire industry with high operating rates, which provides strong support for butadiene demand. The good performance of the synthetic rubber market has further stimulated butadiene demand, and strong demand will continue to push up butadiene prices.3. **Cost Side**: Raw material prices are relatively stable, so the cost side has a minor impact on butadiene prices. Currently, market prices are mainly driven by supply and demand relationships.Forecast1. **Short-term (1 - 2 weeks)**: Butadiene market prices will continue to rise. As the supply shortage is unlikely to change in the short term and downstream demand remains strong, the supply-demand contradiction will intensify, pushing prices further up. It is expected that prices in the East China region may exceed [X + Y + E] yuan/ton.2. **Medium-term (1 - 2 months)**: As some maintenance facilities resume production, market supply will increase, but downstream industry demand is expected to remain at high levels. The rate of price increase may gradually slow down, but prices will generally remain at high levels, with a fluctuation range likely between [X + Y - F] yuan/ton and [X + Y + E] yuan/ton.3. **Long-term (more than 2 months)**: If downstream industry demand declines significantly or new domestic capacity is released in a concentrated manner, the market supply-demand relationship will shift, and butadiene prices may face downward pressure. However, currently, the possibility of this occurring in the short term is relatively low.