1,3-Butadiene

Butadiene Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast (Recent Commodity Market Dynamics)

I. Market Intelligence

Price Trends
- Domestic Prices: As of April 7, 2026, the Business Network’s benchmark price for butadiene stood at RMB 17,840.00 per metric ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. From April 1 to April 7, prices fluctuated—on April 1, the price was RMB 17,800/ton, up 0.51% day-on-day; on April 2, it declined to RMB 17,760/ton (–0.22%); on April 3, it further fell to RMB 17,588/ton (–0.97%).
- International Prices: On April 2, European butadiene FOB Rotterdam settled at USD 1,570–1,578/ton; FD Northwest Europe settled at EUR 1,210–1,218/ton.

Enterprise Quotations and Sales Status
- April 7: Dongming Petrochemical sold 308 tons externally at a floor price of RMB 16,900/ton; Satellite Chemical raised its price by RMB 300/ton, executing at RMB 17,800/ton; Yantai Wanhua sold 140 tons externally at a floor price of RMB 17,000/ton.
- April 3: Dongming Petrochemical sold 392 tons externally at a floor price of RMB 17,000/ton; Satellite Chemical executed at RMB 17,500/ton.
- April 2: Dongming Petrochemical sold 392 tons externally at a floor price of RMB 17,000/ton; Satellite Chemical lowered its price by RMB 500/ton, executing at RMB 17,500/ton.
- April 1: Sinopec’s regional sales companies maintained butadiene pricing at RMB 18,200/ton, unchanged from the prior trading day; Dongming Petrochemical sold 392 tons externally at a floor price of RMB 17,000/ton; Satellite Chemical raised its price by RMB 500/ton, executing at RMB 18,000/ton.

Plant Operation Status
Domestic butadiene plant operations remain divergent: while some capacities have resumed operation, others remain under maintenance—providing underlying supply-side support. For example, Satellite Chemical’s Lianyungang Petrochemical Unit I (70,000 tons/year) is scheduled for maintenance in early April and expected to resume operations in mid-May; Shenghong Refining & Chemical’s Unit I (200,000 tons/year) remains under maintenance; Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30,000-ton/year butadiene unit was shut down for maintenance on March 23 and is projected to restart on April 9.

Demand Situation
Downstream plant maintenance continues, and operating rates remain sluggish. Buyers’ sentiment is cautious, with overall procurement enthusiasm weak and market transactions muted—exerting evident downward pressure on butadiene prices. End-users are purchasing only on a just-in-time basis; persistently soft demand hampers price recovery, and meaningful demand improvement will require time.

Import/Export Situation
Ongoing export-related news has tightened low-priced supply sources, offering moderate domestic market support and helping prevent sharp price declines.

II. Analysis and Assessment

Supply Side
Divergent plant operations have resulted in limited volatility in domestic output. Although certain units have restarted, others remain offline for maintenance—sustaining bottom-line supply support. Consequently, most traders maintain firm quotations and exhibit limited willingness to sell at discounted prices.

Demand Side
Prolonged downstream maintenance and persistently low operating rates continue; end-users purchase solely on a just-in-time basis. Weak demand remains the primary drag on butadiene market performance. Meaningful demand recovery is unlikely in the near term and thus cannot provide notable short-term upside support.

Cost Side
Recent geopolitical developments have overshadowed fundamental factors in driving international crude oil prices, serving as the dominant influence on oil markets. Rising crude oil prices support the naphtha market, prompting refineries to actively push for higher prices—thus providing modest cost-side support for butadiene.

Import/Export Side
Export-related developments—by tightening low-cost supply—offer tangible, albeit limited, support to domestic pricing, helping stabilize the market and curb excessive downside risk.

III. Outlook

Short Term (1–2 Weeks)
Domestic butadiene prices are expected to trade in a narrow range. Supply-side support remains intact, yet the demand side lacks sustained, material catalysts. The ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand will likely sustain price stability—neither enabling significant weakness nor generating strong upward momentum. Key watchpoints include progress on plant maintenance schedules, downstream demand recovery, and import/export policy developments.

Medium-to-Long Term (1–3 Months)
Over time, if downstream operating rates gradually improve, demand may strengthen, providing modest upward support to butadiene prices. However, should new capacity be commissioned en masse—leading to rapid supply expansion—the supply-demand balance could shift toward oversupply, triggering a price correction after an initial rally and ultimately guiding prices back toward a more rational equilibrium level.