Diacetone acrylamide

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. **Price Trends**
- Domestic Market: The mainstream quotation for diacetone acrylamide has shown narrow fluctuations in recent times, with prices in some regions experiencing a slight increase of 200–500 RMB/ton. This rise is primarily driven by a slight increase in raw material costs and localized tight supply.
- International Market: Prices for diacetone acrylamide in Asia have remained relatively stable. In European and American markets, prices have seen a slight increase of 3%–5% due to logistics issues and partial maintenance of production facilities.
2. **Supply Situation**
- Domestic Production: The overall operating rate of domestic producers remains around 75%–80%. Some enterprises have reduced output due to environmental inspections and equipment maintenance, leading to a brief period of tight supply in certain local markets.
- Imports: Recent import volumes have been stable. However, due to rising international shipping costs, the CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) prices of imported goods have increased, providing some support to domestic market prices.
3. **Demand Situation**
- Downstream Industries: Demand performance is divergent. The coating and ink industries have shown stable growth in demand for diacetone acrylamide, driven by the continued development of the construction and packaging sectors.
- Adhesive Industry: Demand has fluctuated slightly. While some small enterprises have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressures, large enterprises still have sufficient order volumes.
4. **Raw Material Situation**
- Acrylonitrile: The price of this key raw material has increased slightly by approximately 3% recently, raising the production cost of diacetone acrylamide. Producers have expressed an intention to raise prices to pass on these cost pressures.
- Other Auxiliary Materials: Prices remain stable, having a minimal impact on the cost of diacetone acrylamide.

Analysis and Judgment
1. **Cost Factors**: The rise in acrylonitrile prices has directly increased the production cost of diacetone acrylamide. To maintain profit margins, producers are gradually raising product prices, which is one of the main drivers of the recent price increase.
2. **Supply Factors**: The decreased operating rate of some domestic enterprises and increased international shipping costs have led to localized tightness in market supply, further supporting upward price movements. However, the overall supply structure has not fundamentally changed, and the tight supply situation is not expected to persist for long.
3. **Demand Factors**: Stable growth in demand from downstream coating and ink industries provides certain support for the diacetone acrylamide market. However, fluctuations in the adhesive industry, particularly the reduced purchasing enthusiasm of small enterprises, may to some extent inhibit significant price increases.

Forecast
1. **Short-term (1–2 weeks)**: Influenced by rising costs and localized tight supply, prices for diacetone acrylamide are expected to continue a narrow upward trend, with an increase range of 300–800 RMB/ton.
2. **Medium-term (1–2 months)**: As producers adjust their production plans, the tight supply situation is expected to ease. Simultaneously, if demand in the downstream adhesive industry does not improve effectively, the momentum for price increases will weaken, and market prices may stabilize with a narrowed fluctuation range.
3. **Long-term (3–6 months)**: Close monitoring is required on the price trends of raw material acrylonitrile and the overall demand changes in downstream industries. If raw material prices remain high and downstream demand continues to grow steadily, prices for diacetone acrylamide are likely to remain at a relatively high level. Conversely, if raw material prices fall or downstream demand declines, prices will face downward pressure.