Dicyclohexylcarbodiimide

Recent Commodity Market Dynamics

1. **Price Trends**
- Over the past week, the mainstream domestic price of dicyclohexylcarbodiimide (DCC) has shown a slight upward fluctuation. From Monday to Friday, the price rose from 28,500 RMB per ton to 29,200 RMB per ton, representing an increase of approximately 2.46%.
- In the international market, prices also increased due to exchange rate fluctuations and supply tightness in certain regions. The cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) import price rose from 3,800 USD per ton to 3,950 USD per ton, an increase of approximately 3.95%.

2. **Supply Situation**
- The operating rate of major domestic manufacturers remained stable at around 75%. Some manufacturers experienced slight production declines due to scheduled equipment maintenance, but overall supply did not show significant shortages.
- Regarding imports, the number of arriving vessels has decreased recently, primarily due to transportation disruptions in some foreign production areas, leading to relatively tight circulation of imported DCC in the market.

3. **Demand Situation**
- Downstream demand has shown divergence. The pharmaceutical intermediate sector maintained stable and growing demand for DCC, driven by new drug research and development and expanded production, with procurement volumes increasing by approximately 10% compared to the previous week.
- Demand from the pesticide sector declined slightly, as some pesticide enterprises reduced procurement by about 5% due to seasonal production adjustments.
- Demand from other sectors, such as dyes and fragrances, remained essentially stable.

4. **Inventory Situation**
- The total inventory of DCC in major domestic warehouses decreased by approximately 8% compared to the previous week. Inventory in the East China region declined more significantly, mainly due to centralized procurement by local pharmaceutical enterprises.
- Inventory in the South China region increased slightly, primarily because some traders proactively increased reserves to anticipate potential future demand changes.

Analysis and Judgment

1. **Reasons for Price Increase**
- On the supply side, reduced imported supplies and lower production from some domestic manufacturers have led to a tighter overall market supply, supporting higher prices.
- On the demand side, growing demand from the pharmaceutical intermediate sector has boosted market procurement enthusiasm, driving prices upward.

2. **Impact of Divergent Demand**
- Growing demand in the pharmaceutical sector has become the primary supporting factor, while declining demand in the pesticide sector has exerted some restraining effect on price increases. However, overall demand remains relatively stable, avoiding significant price volatility.

3. **Impact of Inventory Changes**
- The decline in total domestic inventory, particularly in East China, reflects strong market demand, further pushing prices up. The inventory increase in South China provides a certain buffer for local market prices but has not altered the overall upward trend.

Forecast

1. **Short-Term Forecast (1-2 Weeks)**
- **Prices:** DCC prices are expected to continue a slight upward trend, with domestic mainstream prices likely to break through 30,000 RMB per ton, and international CIF prices potentially reaching around 4,050 USD per ton.
- **Supply:** Domestic manufacturers' operating rates are expected to remain stable. Import arrivals still require monitoring; if transportation issues persist, supply tightness may intensify.
- **Demand:** Demand in the pharmaceutical intermediate sector is expected to continue growing, while pesticide sector demand may stabilize or see slight recovery. Demand in other sectors is expected to remain largely unchanged.

2. **Medium-Term Forecast (1-3 Months)**
- **Prices:** As market supply and demand dynamics adjust, the pace of price increases may slow, but prices are expected to remain at elevated levels. If supply tightness persists, prices may continue to rise; however, if supply increases or demand declines, prices could correct downward.
- **Supply:** Domestic manufacturers may adjust production plans based on market demand. Import arrivals are expected to improve, leading to a gradual balance in market supply.
- **Demand:** The growth trend in pharmaceutical sector demand is expected to continue. Pesticide sector demand may fluctuate due to seasonal factors, while demand in other sectors remains stable.