Methyl propionate

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence for Methyl Propionate

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market: Over the past week, the mainstream transaction price of methyl propionate in the East China region fluctuated within the range of 8,200-8,500 CNY/ton, representing an increase of approximately 3.2% compared to the same period last month. Prices in the South China region were slightly higher, with transaction prices ranging from 8,400-8,700 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.8%.
2. International Market: The FOB China main port price was reported at 1,050-1,100 USD/ton, an increase of approximately 4.5% from last month. The CFR Southeast Asia price was reported at 1,120-1,180 USD/ton, showing a rise of approximately 3.9%.

II. Supply and Demand Relationship
1. Supply Side:
- The capacity utilization rate of domestic methyl propionate was approximately 78%, an increase of 2 percentage points from last month, primarily due to the resumption of operations at some previously under-maintenance units.
- Import volumes decreased by 12% month-on-month, mainly because overseas suppliers prioritized the European and American markets, resulting in tight supply in the Asian region.
2. Demand Side:
- Demand from downstream coatings and solvent industries showed steady growth, particularly in the area of eco-friendly coatings, which increased the demand for methyl propionate.
- Demand in the pharmaceutical intermediates sector remained stable, but there were limited new orders.
- Export demand was robust, with major flows to the Southeast Asian and Indian markets, resulting in a 15% month-on-month increase in export volumes.

III. Cost Factors
1. Raw Material Prices:
- The price of propionic acid recently increased by approximately 5%, primarily due to rising upstream propylene costs and tight supply.
- Methanol prices showed minor fluctuations, remaining in the range of 2,400-2,500 CNY/ton, thus having a limited impact on the production cost of methyl propionate.
2. Profit Margins:
- The production profit margin for methyl propionate remained at 500-600 CNY/ton, a slight decrease from last month, but still within a reasonable range.

IV. Inventory Status
1. Domestic Inventory:
- Inventory in the East China region was approximately 12,000 tons, a decrease of 8% from last month, mainly driven by increased demand and export pull.
- Inventory in the South China region was approximately 8,000 tons, a decrease of 10% from last month, indicating low inventory levels.
2. Port Inventory:
- Inventory at major ports was approximately 25,000 tons, a decrease of 12% from last month, indicating tight market supply.

V. Related Policies and Industry Developments
1. Environmental Policies: Stricter environmental inspections in China have led to production suspensions and rectifications at some small-scale production enterprises, further tightening the supply side.
2. Industry News: A major enterprise plans to add 50,000 tons/year of methyl propionate production capacity, expected to be operational in 2025, which may alleviate long-term supply pressure.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-term: Influenced by tight supply, robust demand, and cost support, methyl propionate prices are expected to continue to rise slightly, with an anticipated increase of 200-300 CNY/ton.
2. Medium-term: As new production capacity is gradually released, market supply pressure will increase, potentially leading to price adjustments. However, demand growth will limit the magnitude of any decline.
3. Long-term: Demand growth in the eco-friendly coatings and pharmaceutical intermediates sectors will provide support for the methyl propionate market, with prices expected to remain in a mid-to-high range.

Forecasts
1. Price Forecast: Over the next month, the mainstream domestic transaction price of methyl propionate is expected to operate within the range of 8,500-8,800 CNY/ton, while the international FOB price is expected to operate within the range of 1,080-1,150 USD/ton.
2. Supply and Demand Forecast: The supply side will gradually recover, but demand growth will absorb part of the incremental supply, keeping inventory levels low.
3. Risk Factors: Significant fluctuations in the price of raw material propionic acid, changes in environmental policies, and the progress of new capacity deployment.