sulfuric acid

Sulfuric Acid: Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Trend

* Recent Prices: As of July 6, 2026, the reference price for sulfuric acid stood at RMB 2,112.50 per metric ton, unchanged from July 1. From June 1 to July 6, sulfuric acid prices exhibited a high-level oscillation pattern. In mid-to-late June, prices briefly surpassed the RMB 2,000/ton threshold, peaking at RMB 2,117.50/ton on June 23.
* Historical Comparison: The estimated average sulfuric acid price in the first half of 2026 was RMB 1,528.36/ton—up RMB 942.43/ton (or +160.84% year-on-year) compared to the same period in 2025. The annual low occurred in early January at RMB 1,036.88/ton; the peak appeared in mid-to-late June at RMB 2,046.88/ton—resulting in a high-low spread of RMB 1,010/ton.

II. Regional Market Dynamics

* East China Region: Sulfuric acid prices remain relatively high, with some enterprises quoting above RMB 2,200/ton. In Jiangsu Province, sulfuric acid producers using sulfur feedstock face mounting pressure due to rising raw material costs, leading to an expanded room for price negotiation in actual transactions. In Zhejiang Province, downstream demand remains stable, and major acid producers report smooth shipment operations.
* South China Region: Demand from downstream phosphochemical industries in Guangxi remains steady; enterprise inventories are low, supporting firm pricing. In Guangdong Province, Huizhou’s key sulfuric acid plant has entered maintenance shutdown, shifting market supply toward pyrite-based acid and sustaining elevated prices.
* North China Region: Overall market conditions remain stable, with no adjustments reported in mainstream sulfuric acid quotations across Hebei and Inner Mongolia. Inventory levels in Hebei remain low; localized transaction prices exhibit minor fluctuations influenced by surrounding regional sentiment. Several acid producers in Inner Mongolia have implemented production cuts, maintaining low overall supply.
* Southwest China Region: Local prices edged upward. In Sichuan Province, sulfur-based acid faces cost pressure amid tightening supply, while pyrite-based acid remains supported by high pyrite feedstock prices and robust demand from new-energy sectors, keeping prices persistently high.

III. Supply-Demand Fundamentals

* Supply Side: Domestic sulfuric acid industry capacity utilization stood at 66.64%, up marginally by 0.07 percentage points week-on-week. It is expected to dip slightly to 66.59% next week, reflecting overall stable supply. However, operating rates vary significantly across production routes: sulfur-based acid production remains unprofitable due to elevated sulfur feedstock prices, dampening producer enthusiasm; smelter acid output is constrained by tight copper concentrate supplies; conversely, pyrite-based acid production shows markedly improved operational willingness driven by enhanced profitability.
* Demand Side: Demand remains clearly bifurcated. The fertilizer sector shows modest tailwinds, with phosphate fertilizer production providing resilient, structural support for sulfuric acid demand. By contrast, demand from the chemical sector—currently in its traditional off-season—is relatively weak, as production rates decline in titanium dioxide and caprolactam industries, leading to slower procurement of sulfuric acid.

IV. Cost and Profitability Analysis

* Raw Material Costs: A sharp surge in sulfur prices represents the most prominent feature of the recent sulfuric acid market. Escalating sulfur prices have directly pushed up production costs for sulfur-based acid.
* Profitability: Theoretical margins for sulfur-based acid remain negative, indicating severe cost inversion; smelter acid enjoys comparatively healthy profits; and although pyrite-based acid profitability has been partially compressed due to elevated pyrite feedstock prices, it still maintains a positive margin.

Analysis & Assessment

I. Reasons Behind High-Level Price Oscillation

* Cost Support: Sustained increases in sulfur prices provide robust bottom-line cost support for sulfuric acid, constituting the primary driver behind its high-level price oscillation.
* Supply-Demand Dynamics: Overall supply growth remains limited and insufficient to trigger meaningful market relaxation; meanwhile, demand exhibits clear divergence—stable in fertilizers but soft in chemicals. Intensified balancing between supply and demand contributes significantly to the persistent high-level price volatility.

II. Causes of Regional Price Disparities

* Regional Supply-Demand Imbalances: Divergent local supply-demand configurations lead to inter-regional price differences. For instance, East China features strong demand coupled with relatively tight supply, resulting in higher prices; whereas North China exhibits more balanced supply and demand, yielding relatively stable pricing.
* Transportation Costs: Logistics expenses also serve as a critical factor influencing regional price differentials. Longer-distance transportation adds incremental costs, thereby elevating delivered prices.

Outlook

I. Short-Term Price Trend

* Sideways Consolidation: Domestic sulfuric acid prices are expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with only narrow-range consolidation anticipated. Persistently high input costs will continue underpinning market confidence; however, notable demand-side headwinds—including diminishing acceptance of premium-priced sulfuric acid—will constrain further upside potential.

II. Medium- to Long-Term Price Trend

* High-Level Volatility: Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the domestic sulfuric acid market is projected to sustain a high-price regime, albeit with a narrowing volatility range. With bullish and bearish forces counterbalancing each other, a one-sided directional trend appears unlikely. Prices are expected to trade predominantly within the RMB 1,800–2,100/ton band.
* Key Monitoring Factors: Going forward, close attention should be paid to the pace of sulfur supply recovery, policy developments concerning phosphate fertilizer exports, and operational changes among smelter acid and sulfur-based acid producers. These variables will critically shape the evolving supply-demand balance and corresponding price trajectory of the sulfuric acid market.