sulfuric acid

Sulfuric Acid Market Intelligence Report (July 29, 2026)

I. National Price Trend
1. Benchmark Price
- According to Ebon Consulting data, the sulfuric acid benchmark price stood at RMB 2,092.50 per ton on July 27, down 0.95% from the beginning-of-month level of RMB 2,112.50 per ton, remaining within the annual high range (annual high: RMB 2,217.50 per ton; annual low: RMB 637.50 per ton).

2. Regional Divergence
- Shandong: The market shifted from stalemate to softening, with major acid producers facing mounting inventory pressure; low-priced supplies from Henan and Inner Mongolia intensified competition.
- Northeast China: Liaoning raised its acid price to RMB 1,500 per ton; Jilin experienced sluggish trading due to limited acceptance of high prices; Heilongjiang’s price remained stable at RMB 1,680–1,850 per ton.
- Northwest China: Qinghai’s posted price was RMB 1,820–1,840 per ton, with plans to reduce it by RMB 50–100 per ton to RMB 1,700–1,750 per ton; long-term contract prices for key customers will be adjusted downward accordingly.
- Henan: Declining acid prices in surrounding regions weakened market sentiment; some acid producers lowered their quotations, and negotiation flexibility for new orders widened.
- Guangdong: Shaoguan Smelting’s acid supply eased following plant maintenance, stabilizing prices; Yunfu mineral-acid inventories rose, prompting modest price discounts.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
1. Supply Side
- Diminishing Impact of Maintenance: Production from previously idled facilities—whose shutdowns had supported elevated prices—has resumed, boosting overall supply. For example, while concentrated maintenance is scheduled for September in the Northeast, operations fully resumed in July.
- Regional Supply Imbalance: Qinghai (Northwest) faces tight supply due to raw material shortages, whereas Shandong and Henan experience heightened inventory pressure driven by inflows of low-cost acid.

2. Demand Side
- Traditional Off-Season Suppression: Phosphate fertilizer and chemical industries are in seasonal demand lull; end-users increasingly resist high-priced acid, resulting in weak procurement intentions.
- Downstream Divergence:
Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) capacity expansion remains limited; diammonium phosphate (DAP) operating rates stay low (~69.3%), constraining fertilizer-related acid demand growth.
Chemical applications (e.g., titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid production) show relatively stable demand, but insufficient new capacity additions fail to lift overall demand significantly.

III. Cost Support
- High Sulfur Prices: Elevated sulfur feedstock costs provide rigid floor support; however, during this off-season, such cost support proves insufficient to offset prevailing supply-demand imbalances.
- Pyrite Ore Costs: In Guangdong, sustained high pyrite ore prices exert upward pressure on mineral-acid production costs; yet subdued downstream purchasing limits effective price pass-through.

IV. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
- Bearish Sentiment Spreading: Acid prices declined across multiple regions—including Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Fujian, Guangdong, and Shandong—with adjustments ranging widely from RMB 50 to RMB 200 per ton.
- Widened Negotiation Range: New-order negotiations cooled notably in Henan and Guangdong; acid producers broadened pricing flexibility to alleviate inventory pressure.

V. Market Assessment
1. Short-Term Outlook: Domestic sulfuric acid markets remain weak, with further price declines likely.
- Key Drivers: Escalating supply (from resumed operations and influx of low-cost acid) collides with depressed demand (phosphate fertilizer and chemical sectors in seasonal trough), worsening imbalance.
- Regional Risk Profile: Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong—regions confronting acute inventory pressure—are likely to lead price declines; Qinghai (Northwest), constrained by tight supply, may see comparatively limited downside.

2. Long-Term Outlook:
- Persistent Supply-Demand Imbalance: China’s sulfuric acid capacity is projected to expand by 8.45% in 2024, intensifying supply pressure, while traditional downstream demand growth remains muted and emerging applications lack sufficient scale to absorb excess output.
- Export Development Hindered: Domestic export infrastructure—including available ports and storage capacity—is limited; construction of new storage tanks entails lengthy lead times, precluding exports from becoming a significant channel in the near term.

VI. Price Forecast
1. Benchmark Price Forecast:
- Late July to August: Amid deteriorating supply-demand fundamentals and weakening cost support, the benchmark price may fall below RMB 2,000 per ton, reaching RMB 1,950–2,000 per ton.
- September: Seasonal uptick in fertilizer demand ahead of autumn application season, coupled with the traditionally robust “Golden September–Silver October” industrial peak, could drive prices upward to RMB 2,100–2,150 per ton.

2. Regional Price Differentials:
- Northeast and Northwest regions—constrained by relatively tight supply—will likely maintain firmer pricing; East and South China, facing fiercer competition, may see wider declines of RMB 100–150 per ton.
- Shandong and Henan—receiving abundant low-cost acid inflows—may evolve into regional pricing basins, widening price gaps versus neighboring areas to over RMB 200 per ton.