Ammonium sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate: Recent Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Dynamics
1. Domestic Market
- Primary Production Region Prices: As of July 28, 2026, the mainstream quotation for coking-grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province has declined to RMB 700–730 per metric ton, representing a 19% decrease from the beginning of the year and a year-on-year decline of 34%. In contrast, caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate prices remain relatively stable, holding within the RMB 1,000–1,250 per metric ton range.
- Regional Divergence: Caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate in Hubei Province is quoted at RMB 1,500 per metric ton; agricultural-grade ammonium sulfate in Henan Province trades at RMB 850 per metric ton; and food-grade ammonium sulfate exhibits significant price variation—RMB 8,000 per metric ton in Shandong versus RMB 3,100 per metric ton in Hubei.
- Short-Term Volatility: On July 22, coking-grade ammonium sulfate in Shanxi Province experienced a single-day price drop of 35%. Bid failures occurred frequently in auction markets across Inner Mongolia and Henan provinces, reflecting widespread market anxiety.

2. International Market
- Price Inversion: Granular ammonium sulfate CFR (Cost and Freight) prices in Brazil stand at USD 230–250 per metric ton. Based on urea nitrogen unit value conversion, the theoretical fair price for ammonium sulfate is USD 208–219 per metric ton—indicating international prices exceed domestic levels.
- Demand Support: China’s ammonium sulfate exports reached 10.1745 million metric tons in the first half of 2026, accounting for over 80% of global trade volume. Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia remain core import destinations.

II. Policy Impact
1. Implementation of Export Inspection Mandate
- Effective July 16, export declarations for ammonium sulfate now require regulatory condition “B”, mandating compulsory commercial inspection by customs authorities. This extends clearance lead time by 3–5 working days and increases comprehensive export costs by RMB 30–80 per metric ton.
- “White List” Mechanism: Only enterprises with annual production capacity exceeding 200,000 metric tons (from caprolactam or methyl methacrylate by-product streams) or 300,000 metric tons (granulation/extrusion facilities) may apply for self-regulated export quotas. Smaller trading firms face severe export constraints.
- Short-Term Shock: During initial policy implementation, export volumes plummeted sharply. By late July, domestic coking-grade ammonium sulfate inventories accumulated significantly, exerting downward pressure on prices.

2. Accelerated Industry Standardization
- In the longer term, mandatory inspection policies are driving industry transformation toward quality-oriented development. Price differentials between high- and low-end products continue widening, while market share shifts toward leading enterprises with proven quality control capabilities.

III. Supply-Demand Landscape
1. Supply Side
- By-Product Nature: Ammonium sulfate is predominantly derived as a by-product from coke ovens, caprolactam production, and flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) units at thermal power plants—no independent synthesis lines exist. Annual circulating volume exceeds 22 million metric tons, with export dependency approaching 90%.
- Inventory Pressure: Coking enterprises typically ship one week in advance; however, recent demand suspension downstream has led to inventory build-up, compelling some producers to slash prices for urgent sales.

2. Demand Side
- Domestic Demand: Agricultural-grade ammonium sulfate’s share of total demand continues shrinking. Alternative nitrogen sources—including compound fertilizers, rare-earth processing, and fermentation industries—are increasingly preferred. Despite the upcoming autumn fertilizer preparation season, upward pricing momentum remains weak.
- International Demand: Agricultural demand in South America and Southeast Asia follows seasonal planting cycles and remains stable. However, constrained Chinese exports have tightened global supply, thereby supporting international price stability.

IV. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short Term (1–3 Months)
- Price Pressure: The domestic oversupply situation persists; coking-grade ammonium sulfate prices may further decline to RMB 650–700 per metric ton.
- Export Stalemate: Export clearance procedures remain unsettled; small and medium-sized traders maintain strong wait-and-see sentiment. A meaningful recovery in actual export volume is not expected until September onward.

2. Medium Term (3–6 Months)
- Widening Price Spread: Price divergence between caprolactam-grade and coking-grade ammonium sulfate will intensify. Premium-grade products benefit from smoother export channels and retain pricing resilience, whereas low-end products remain depressed amid intense domestic competition.
- Industry Consolidation: Small and medium-sized trading firms are exiting the market rapidly, accelerating resource concentration toward industry leaders and elevating overall market concentration.

3. Long Term (6–12 Months)
- Restored International Pricing Power: As export logistics normalize, China’s influence on global ammonium sulfate pricing is expected to rebound, pushing the price center upward.
- Quality-Centric Competition: Mandatory inspection policies foster standardized, compliant operations. Product segmentation becomes entrenched, with quality-stable enterprises assuming dominant market positions.

V. Forecast
1. Price Trends
- Domestic coking-grade ammonium sulfate prices may bottom out and rebound in August; however, the full-year average is projected to decline 15–20% year-on-year. Caprolactam-grade prices are expected to fluctuate within RMB 1,000–1,300 per metric ton.
- International prices—sensitive to the pace of Chinese export recovery—are anticipated to soften modestly to USD 220–230 per metric ton (CFR) in Q4.

2. Market Opportunities
- Export-Oriented Enterprises: Prioritize enrollment in the “White List” mechanism and proactively secure self-regulated export quotas via official e-platforms to lock in international orders.
- Domestic Procurement: Leverage the expanding price spread during the autumn fertilizer stocking period to establish cost-efficient inventory positions in agricultural-grade ammonium sulfate.
- Industry Transformation: SMEs may consider strategic pivots toward high-value segments—e.g., food-grade or electronic-grade ammonium sulfate—to circumvent commoditized, low-margin competition.