coal-based activated carbon

Market Intelligence on Coal-Based Activated Carbon

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market: Recently, prices of coal-based activated carbon have shown a stable trend with a slight increase. The mainstream transaction price in North China is between 8,500 and 9,500 RMB/ton. Prices in East China are slightly higher, ranging from 9,000 to 10,000 RMB/ton. Due to higher transportation costs, prices in South China range from 9,200 to 10,200 RMB/ton. Compared to the previous month, the overall average price has increased by approximately 2%-3%, primarily driven by rising raw material coal prices and stricter environmental policies.
2. International Market: International prices for coal-based activated carbon are influenced by global energy market fluctuations. The FOB China port price is between 1,200 and 1,350 USD/ton, representing an increase of approximately 5% from the previous month, mainly due to recovering demand in Europe and North America, coupled with rising shipping costs.

II. Supply and Demand
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic capacity utilization remains at a high level, approximately 85%-90%. However, some small and medium-sized enterprises have suspended production for rectification due to environmental inspections, leading to regional supply tightness.
- The price of raw material anthracite continues to rise, increasing cost pressure on some enterprises, forcing them to raise prices or reduce the production of low value-added products.
2. Demand Side:
- Demand in the water treatment industry is growing steadily, with increasing demand for high-quality coal-based activated carbon in the industrial wastewater treatment sector.
- Seasonal recovery in demand from industries such as air purification and food & beverage has driven a short-term increase in procurement volume.
- The export market is performing strongly, with order volumes in Southeast Asia and the Middle East increasing by approximately 15% year-on-year.

III. Costs and Profits
1. Raw Material Costs: The price of anthracite has increased by approximately 12% since the beginning of the year, leading to an increase in the production cost of coal-based activated carbon by approximately 8%-10%.
2. Profit Margins: Large enterprises, benefiting from scale production and technical advantages, maintain gross margins of 15%-20%. Small and medium-sized enterprises, under cost pressure, have seen their gross margins compressed to 8%-12%, with some approaching the break-even point.

IV. Policy and Environmental Impact
1. Domestic environmental policies continue to tighten, requiring some enterprises that do not meet emission standards to limit or suspend production, further increasing industry concentration.
2. Under the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, coal-based activated carbon, as an environmental material, has a positive long-term demand outlook. However, in the short term, supply-side volatility has intensified due to the intensity of policy enforcement.

V. Analysis and Judgment
1. Short Term (1-3 months):
- Prices are expected to maintain a stable trend with a slight increase, supported by raw material costs and seasonal demand recovery, with an expected increase of 2%-5%.
- Regional supply tightness is unlikely to be alleviated due to environmental inspections and cost pressures, but there is limited room for large-scale price increases.
2. Medium Term (3-6 months):
- If coal prices remain high, coal-based activated carbon prices may follow suit, but downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, potentially slowing the pace of increases.
- The performance of the export market will be a key variable; if international demand remains strong, it may drive further increases in domestic prices.
3. Long Term (6-12 months):
- Environmental policies will drive industry consolidation, expanding the market share of leading enterprises and strengthening their pricing power.
- Technological upgrades (such as low-ash, high-adsorption products) will become the focus of competition, with prices for high-end products likely to remain firm.

VI. Forecast
1. Price Range: Over the next 6 months, the mainstream domestic price of coal-based activated carbon is expected to fluctuate between 8,800 and 10,500 RMB/ton, while the international FOB price is expected to be between 1,250 and 1,450 USD/ton.
2. Supply and Demand Structure: The supply side will gradually concentrate among large-scale, environmentally compliant enterprises, while the demand side will maintain a growth trend driven by environmental policies and emerging markets.
3. Risk Points: Significant fluctuations in coal prices, changes in the intensity of environmental policy enforcement, and rising international shipping costs.