2-ethylhexanol / octanol

Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast for Isooctanol/Octanol

I. Recent Market Dynamics
Price Trends
- Isooctanol:
- On April 28, 2026, the Base Price of Isooctanol on Shengyishe (Business Society) stood at RMB 8,933.33 per metric ton, representing a 3.25% decline from the beginning-of-month price of RMB 9,233.33 per metric ton. Prices in April exhibited significant volatility—starting relatively high at month-beginning, then declining gradually. As of recently, mainstream quotations in Shandong Province ranged between RMB 7,800–8,000 per metric ton, while some enterprises quoted above RMB 9,000 per metric ton.
- On June 29, 2026, quotations across Shandong Province varied markedly: Shandong Hongyang Chemical Co., Ltd. (Qilu, Shandong Province) quoted RMB 7,600 per metric ton; Shandong North Lu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. (Qilu, Shandong Province) quoted RMB 6,800 per metric ton; Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. (Qilu, Hubei Province) quoted RMB 8,800.0 per metric ton; and Shandong Fusheng Yong Trading Co., Ltd. (domestic origin, Jinan City, Shandong Province) quoted RMB 5,800 per metric ton.
- Data as of May 16, 2026 indicated a three-month average price of RMB 7,770 per metric ton, with a three-month low of RMB 6,725 and a three-month high of RMB 8,500 per metric ton—suggesting current prices remain at a relatively high level.
- Octanol: Price trends generally correlate with those of isooctanol, though volatility may differ. Over the recent period, octanol prices have also shown an oscillatory pattern.

Supply and Demand Situation
- Supply:
- China’s isooctanol industry maintains relatively stable capacity, with output continuing to grow. Shandong Province is the largest production base, accounting for approximately half of national capacity. In 2025, 500,000 tons of new capacity were commissioned; by 2026, total domestic capacity is expected to exceed 6 million tons. Continued ramp-up of newly added capacity will intensify supply pressure.
- In July 2025, numerous isooctanol producers underwent maintenance shutdowns, leading to reduced operating rates and lower output—thereby tightening supply.
- Demand:
- Downstream DOP (di-octyl phthalate) producers operated at utilization rates of approximately 60%–65%; demand remains structurally rigid but exhibits limited growth potential.
- Rising demand for eco-friendly plasticizer DOTP (di-octyl terephthalate) provides modest support for isooctanol demand. However, sluggish real estate activity suppresses demand for PVC products, resulting in overall weak demand.
- Within octanol’s downstream demand structure, DOTP and DOP each account for roughly 40%. Growing DOTP output supports octanol demand, yet contraction in traditional plasticizer demand restrains overall growth.

Regional and Enterprise Quotation Disparities
- Regional Differences: Significant inter-regional quotation disparities exist—for example, quotations in Shandong Province tend to be comparatively lower, whereas certain enterprises in Jiangsu Province quote higher levels.
- Enterprise-Level Differences: Even within the same region, quotations vary considerably among producers. For instance, on June 29, 2026, some Shandong-based enterprises quoted RMB 7,800 per metric ton, while others quoted as high as RMB 9,000 per metric ton.

II. Analysis and Assessment
Causes of Price Volatility
- Cost Factors: Fluctuations in propylene prices—the primary raw material—affect isooctanol production costs. For example, rising propylene prices in 2024 exerted upward pressure on isooctanol manufacturing costs.
- Supply-Demand Dynamics: Changes in supply-side capacity, plant maintenance schedules, and output levels—as well as demand-side factors such as downstream operating rates and environmental policy implementation—are the principal drivers of price fluctuations. For instance, in July 2025, widespread maintenance activities reduced isooctanol supply, while downstream DOP plants concurrently lowered their operating rates, reducing demand. Nevertheless, the magnitude of supply contraction exceeded that of demand reduction, thus pushing prices upward.
- Market Sentiment and Expectations: Market participants’ expectations regarding future supply-demand developments also influence current pricing. For example, anticipation of new capacity commissioning may foster expectations of increased supply, thereby affecting near-term price formation.

Interproduct Correlations
- Isooctanol and octanol exhibit correlated price movements. Within the plasticizer sector, demand for DOTP and DOP exerts mutual influence on both isooctanol and octanol. Growing demand for environmentally compliant plasticizers benefits both products, while shrinking demand for conventional plasticizers acts as a drag on pricing.

III. Outlook and Forecast
Short Term (1–2 Weeks)
- Isooctanol prices are projected to trade in a range of RMB 7,500–8,200 per metric ton. Should geopolitical tensions ease, cost support would further weaken, potentially driving prices down to RMB 7,500 per metric ton; conversely, escalation of such tensions could trigger a rebound to RMB 8,000–8,200 per metric ton.
- Octanol prices—subject to supply-demand fundamentals and cost pressures—are likely to remain range-bound at relatively low levels; however, precise trading ranges require further market assessment.

Medium Term (1–3 Months)
- Isooctanol prices are expected to stabilize within RMB 7,200–7,800 per metric ton. As downstream DOP producers enter the traditional off-season (April–June), demand may weaken further, pressuring prices downward toward RMB 7,200–7,500 per metric ton. However, persistently elevated crude oil prices could provide cost-based floor support, limiting downside risks.
- Octanol may gradually stabilize and recover as supply-demand fundamentals improve; nonetheless, if downstream operating rates fail to increase significantly, pricing pressure may persist.

Long Term (6–12 Months)
- The isooctanol price center may shift downward to RMB 7,000–7,500 per metric ton, reflecting expanded capacity and evolving supply-demand dynamics. However, industry consolidation and green, low-carbon transformation initiatives could push the price center upward—though risks such as carbon tariffs warrant close attention.
- Octanol stands to benefit from growing DOTP demand, yet contracting traditional demand may cap upside potential. Overall price trajectory will hinge critically on evolving demand patterns for DOTP and DOP, as well as propylene price trends.