Melamine

Melamine: Recent Market Dynamics, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics
(A) Price Trends
1. Recent Price Changes: On July 7, 2026, the benchmark price of melamine, as reported by Shengyishe (Business Society), stood at RMB 6,037.50 per ton, down 0.21% month-on-month from RMB 6,050.00 per ton at the beginning of July. Prices remained unchanged between July 3 and July 7, both at RMB 6,037.50 per ton; prices from July 1–2 were RMB 6,050 per ton. Overall, prices declined throughout June: from RMB 6,125.00 per ton on June 1 to RMB 6,050.00 per ton on June 30—a monthly decline of 1.22%.
2. Regional Price Disparities: Significant price variations exist across regions, brands, and production technologies. For example, on July 6, 2026, Weifang Chengxin Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 5,400 per ton for Xinjiang Yuxiang melamine in Shandong Province; Chizhou Xinyu Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 7,600 per ton for Jiangsu Yuxiang melamine in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province; and Changzhou Jiaye Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,500 per ton for Sichuan Jinxin melamine in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province.

(B) Market Conditions
1. Overall Market Trend: As of July 6, the melamine market continued its weak performance this week, with prices fluctuating downward and overall operation remaining subdued. According to the melamine price chart’s moving average system, both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages trended downward throughout the period, with the 10-day MA consistently trading below the 20-day MA—indicating ongoing downward momentum, albeit at a decelerating pace.
2. Enterprise Price Adjustments: On July 7, 2026, producers including Xingji (Hebei) and Shandong Shuntian lowered their melamine quotations; on July 3, Hubei Dangyang Huaqiang reduced its melamine price by RMB 100 per ton, and Shanxi Fengxi also cut its quotation; on July 1, Xingji Jiuyuan Chemical (Hebei) and Shandong Shuntian further adjusted their melamine prices downward.

(C) Upstream and Downstream Conditions
1. Upstream Raw Materials: Urea—the core raw material for melamine—exhibited a downward trend this week. On July 7, the benchmark urea price was RMB 1,802.50 per ton, down 0.62% from RMB 1,813.75 per ton at the start of the month. Continued weakness in urea prices provides no cost support for melamine.
2. Downstream Demand: Demand remains sluggish, market sentiment is weak, and holders face difficulties in offloading inventory, resulting in mounting pressure on melamine stockpiles. Melamine’s downstream applications span impregnated paper, panels, coatings, molding compounds, flame retardants, and water-reducing agents—ultimately linking to end-user sectors such as real estate, automotive, daily consumer goods, textiles, packaging, environmental protection, and infrastructure construction. Currently, demand across these sectors shows no notable improvement.

II. Analysis and Assessment
(A) Reasons for Price Decline
1. Inadequate Cost Support: The persistent decline in upstream urea prices has lowered melamine production costs, strengthening producers’ willingness to offer discounts and further constraining any potential rebound in melamine prices.
2. Pronounced Supply-Demand Imbalance: On the supply side, although some plants underwent maintenance shutdowns, overall supply remains ample. On the demand side, downstream industries exhibit weak demand and low purchasing enthusiasm; inventory overhang persists among holders, driving negotiated transaction prices lower.

(B) Reasons for Low-Level Stalemate
1. Lack of Support Despite Low Prices: Although melamine prices have fallen to historically low levels, they have failed to stimulate buyer interest—low prices are not providing meaningful support, and the market continues its gradual, downward drift.
2. Weak Market Confidence: Given that the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to resolve in the near term—and compounded by ongoing upstream cost softness—market participants hold pessimistic expectations for the outlook, resulting in low trading activity and prolonged price stagnation at depressed levels.

III. Outlook
(A) Short-Term Forecast
Currently, the melamine average deviation indicator remains negative, signaling an unbroken downtrend. Prices remain low across the entire cycle but lack supportive fundamentals. Coupled with continuously weakening upstream urea costs, the market’s sluggishness is unlikely to reverse quickly in the near term. The market is expected to remain range-bound and weak; absent unexpected positive catalysts, prices may continue to edge slightly lower. No clear stabilization signals have yet emerged.

(B) Long-Term Forecast
In the longer term, improving demand from downstream sectors—including real estate and the automotive industry—as well as steady growth in melamine export markets, are expected to gradually lift overall demand. Concurrently, industry-wide capacity optimization and restructuring will help alleviate supply-demand imbalances, supporting a gradual recovery in melamine prices. However, the timing and magnitude of any price recovery will depend on macroeconomic conditions, policy developments, and dynamics across upstream and downstream industries.