Tetrahydrofuran

# Recent Commodity Market Dynamics, Intelligence, and Analytical Forecast for Tetrahydrofuran (THF)

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## I. Comprehensive Price Trend Scan

| Time Point | Price (CNY/ton) | Change Magnitude | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 11,800 | Baseline | SunSirs |
| Oct 15 | 12,650 | +7.2% (vs. Oct 1) | SunSirs |
| Oct 28 | 12,650 | Flat | SunSirs |
| Nov 5 | 12,650 | Flat | SunSirs |
| Nov 6 | 12,400 | -1.98% (vs. beginning of month) | SunSirs |
| Nov 10 | 12,400 | Flat | SunSirs |
| Nov 10 (Enterprise Quote) | 11,400 (Shandong Hongyang, 99.9% National Standard Premium Grade) | — | SunSirs Quote Center |

**Core Assessment:** From mid-October to the end of October, THF prices surged robustly from 11,800 CNY/ton to 12,650 CNY/ton, marking a 7.2% increase. Upon entering November, prices retreated from the high to 12,400 CNY/ton, a drop of approximately 2%. The market exhibits a pattern of \"surging then retreating, with high-level consolidation.\"

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## II. Upstream Raw Material Correlation Analysis

1. **BDO – The \"Lifeline\" of THF**
- On Sep 28, the average BDO price was 10,150 CNY/ton, surging 23.78% compared to the same period in August.
- On Oct 15, the average BDO price was 10,300 CNY/ton, with the South China market at 10,400 CNY/ton.
- The industry average operating rate is only 54.48%. Xinjiang Guotai's 100,000-ton unit is under maintenance, while two units at Inner Mongolia Huaheng are operating at 40% load.
- **Supply tightness is the core engine driving price increases in BDO and, consequently, THF.**

2. **Toluene – Another Key Raw Material**
- On Oct 15, East China toluene was priced at 9,000 CNY/ton, and North China at 9,025 CNY/ton, representing month-on-month increases of 1.69% and 2.27%, respectively.
- Downstream benzoic acid has seen a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.57%, with the entire toluene oxidation product line showing strong momentum.

**Assessment:** With upstream BDO operating rates below 50% and frequent unit maintenance, coupled with continuous toluene price hikes, the cost side provides strong support for THF. Downward price pressure is limited in the short term.

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## III. Downstream Demand Drivers

| Downstream Sector | Demand Dynamics | Pulling Effect |
|---|---|---|
| **PTMEG (Polytetrahydrofuran Ether)** | Nov 10 quote at 17,000 CNY/ton (Shandong Yaoming, Yihe); global demand projected to exceed 1.5 million tons | 1 ton of PTMEG consumes 1.3 tons of THF, providing direct pull |
| **Lithium Battery Electrolyte** | 2026 global electrolyte demand projected at 2.8 million tons; THF accounts for approx. 30%; THF consumption approx. 120 tons per GWh | Explosive growth in the new energy sector |
| **Pharmaceutical Intermediates** | High-purity THF (≥99.9%) demand growing >15% annually; essential for cephalosporin and Vitamin B6 synthesis | High value-added niche market |
| **Spandex Fiber** | 2026 global spandex output projected at 1.5 million tons; PTMEG demand projected at 1.8 million tons | Stable incremental growth in the textile sector |

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## IV. Market Supply and Demand Landscape Assessment

**Supply Side:**
- BDO industry operating rate is only 54.48%, with tight supply of raw material LBDO.
- Enterprises like Meibang Technology use the LBDO purification method to produce high-quality THF; production and sales are increasing but constrained by raw material availability.
- Overall industry capacity utilization is low, making short-term capacity expansion difficult.

**Demand Side:**
- New energy vehicle sales are projected to exceed 30 million units, with energy storage installations reaching 500 GWh, causing a surge in THF demand for electrolytes.
- Downstream PTMEG demand for spandex and polyurethane elastomers is growing steadily.
- Breakthroughs in solid-state/semi-solid battery technology are spawning new THF demand (projected to reach 150,000 tons by 2031).

**Supply-Demand Conclusion:** Short-term supply is tight while demand is diversifying across multiple sectors. The market is in a \"tight balance\" state, endowing prices with resilience.

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## V. Risk Warnings

| Risk Type | Specific Manifestation |
|---|---|
| Price Volatility Risk | Prices have already corrected after the October surge. If BDO units resume production in a concentrated manner, prices could drop rapidly. |
| Accounts Receivable Risk | Financial pressure on downstream enterprises may transmit to THF manufacturers. |
| Technological Iteration Risk | Large-scale production of bio-based THF (reducing carbon emissions by 60%) could impact the traditional petrochemical route. |
| Environmental Policy Risk | EU VOCs emission requirements mandate a THF recovery rate of ≥95%, increasing compliance costs. |

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## VI. Price Forecast and Operational Recommendations

| Time Dimension | Forecast Range (CNY/ton) | Core Logic |
|---|---|---|
| **Short-term (Late Nov – Dec)** | 11,400 – 12,650 | High-level consolidation. If BDO operating rates do not rise significantly, prices are unlikely to fall below 11,400; however, upside resistance at 12,650 is evident. |
| **Medium-term (Q1 2027)** | 12,000 – 14,000 | Peak season for new energy installations combined with winter chemical unit maintenance will sustain the tight supply-demand balance. |
| **Long-term (2026–2032)** | Steady Upward Trend | Global THF revenue scale is projected to grow from $372 million to $479 million, with a CAGR of 4.29%. Premiums for high-end products (battery-grade, pharmaceutical-grade) will expand. |

**Core Judgment:** Tetrahydrofuran is currently in a window period driven by the dual engines of \"cost push\" and \"demand pull.\" The main theme in the short term is high-level consolidation, while the medium-term bullish structure remains unchanged. It is recommended that supply chain enterprises lock in long-term contracts and monitor BDO unit dynamics. Investors may consider positioning in leading companies with LBDO purification technology advantages on price pullbacks.