Tetrahydrofuran

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. **Price Trends**
- Domestic tetrahydrofuran (THF) prices exhibit a narrow-range fluctuation. Mainstream transaction prices in some regions are within the range of 14,000–15,000 yuan/ton, showing a slight fluctuation of approximately 200–300 yuan/ton compared to the previous week.
- In the international market, THF prices in Asia remain relatively stable, with CFR China prices maintained around 1,900–2,000 USD/ton. Due to differences in demand and supply structure, prices in Europe and the US are slightly higher, with US prices at 2,200–2,300 USD/ton and European prices at 2,100–2,200 EUR/ton.
2. **Supply Situation**
- The operating rate of domestic THF production enterprises remains around 70%–75%. Some enterprises have reduced their operating rates due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues, leading to a slight decrease in overall market supply.
- On the import side, the volume of arriving shipments has been relatively stable. However, due to relatively high international prices and increased import costs, traders' enthusiasm for imports is moderate, and import volumes have not shown significant growth.
3. **Demand Situation**
- Downstream industry demand shows differentiation. The polytetrahydrofuran (PTMEG) industry maintains stable THF demand, with an operating rate of around 80%, and procurement volumes are proceeding according to plans.
- Demand in the pharmaceutical intermediate industry has increased, with some enterprises increasing THF procurement to meet order requirements, although the overall demand increment is limited.
- Demand in the solvent industry is sluggish. Affected by environmental protection policies, some small enterprises have restricted operations, resulting in reduced THF demand.
4. **Cost Aspects**
- The price of the main raw material, 1,4-butanediol (BDO), has shown little recent fluctuation, remaining around 11,000–12,000 yuan/ton, providing stable cost support for THF.
- Energy prices, such as coal and natural gas, have risen, slightly increasing enterprise production costs, but this has not yet significantly driven THF prices.

Analysis and Judgment
1. **Reasons for Price Fluctuations**: The recent narrow-range fluctuation in THF prices is mainly influenced by the combined effects of supply-demand relations and cost factors. On the supply side, reduced operating rates at some enterprises and increased import costs have led to a slight decrease in supply. On the demand side, downstream industry demand is differentiated, with no significant overall growth. In terms of costs, stable raw material prices and limited impact from rising energy costs mean there is little momentum for significant price fluctuations.
2. **Market Supply-Demand Balance Status**: The current market supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state. Although supply has decreased, demand growth is also not significant, and market inventory remains at a reasonable level, with no obvious signs of supply shortage or oversupply.

Forecast
1. **Price Trend**: In the short term, THF prices are expected to continue their narrow-range fluctuation, with a price range likely between 13,800–15,200 yuan/ton. If downstream industry demand does not show significant improvement, prices are unlikely to rise substantially. If significant changes occur on the supply side, such as concentrated enterprise maintenance or a substantial decrease in import volumes, prices may rise to some extent.
2. **Supply Forecast**: In the coming period, the operating rate of domestic production enterprises is expected to remain stable, with some enterprises potentially adjusting production plans based on market demand and raw material prices. On the import side, affected by international prices and import costs, import volumes are not expected to increase significantly.
3. **Demand Forecast**: Among downstream industries, demand in the PTMEG industry is expected to remain stable, while demand in the pharmaceutical intermediate industry may see some growth, albeit limited. Demand in the solvent industry, affected by environmental protection policies, is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. Overall demand growth is expected to be relatively slow.