In 2023–2024, the United States, Brazil, and France were the leading exporters of ethanol (CAS 64-17-5), collectively accounting for over 60% of global export value, while China, India, and Canada ranked as the top importers. The U.S. and Brazil dominate supply due to large-scale biofuel production capacity, whereas Asian and North American import demand reflects blending mandates and industrial use. Global ethanol trade volumes remained relatively stable in 2024 amid moderate fluctuations in ethanol prices, with emerging import growth observed in Southeast Asia and sustained policy-driven demand in major markets.
Market Dynamics Intelligence Report on Ethanol
I. Domestic Market Dynamics
1. Price Trends
- North China Region: Industrial-grade ethanol prices remain stable at 6,800-7,000 RMB/ton. Food-grade ethanol prices have seen a slight increase to 7,200-7,400 RMB/ton, representing a rise of approximately 2%.
- East China Region: Industrial-grade ethanol prices are maintained at 6,900-7,100 RMB/ton. Food-grade ethanol prices are quoted at 7,300-7,500 RMB/ton, with some enterprises raising prices due to rising raw material costs.
- South China Region: Industrial-grade ethanol prices range from 6,950-7,150 RMB/ton, while food-grade ethanol prices are between 7,400-7,600 RMB/ton. Prices are trending strongly, driven by downstream chemical demand.
2. Supply Situation
- The operating rate of domestic ethanol enterprises is approximately 65%, unchanged from the previous period. However, limited production due to environmental inspections has led to tight local supplies.
- Corn ethanol enterprises in Northeast China are at low inventory levels. Meanwhile, cassava ethanol enterprises in East China maintain stable operating rates, but the import cost of cassava chips has increased.
3. Demand Situation
- Chemical Demand: Increased operating rates in downstream products such as ethyl acetate and acetaldehyde have boosted demand for industrial-grade ethanol.
- Energy Demand: Ethanol gasoline blending demand remains stable amid international oil price fluctuations, although competition from alternative fuels has intensified.
- Food Demand: Entering a traditional peak season, the beverage and liquor industries have driven a significant increase in demand for food-grade ethanol.
4. Cost Side
- Corn Prices: Corn acquisition prices in Northeast China are stable at 2,500-2,600 RMB/ton, supporting the cost of corn ethanol.
- Cassava Prices: The price of imported cassava chips has risen to 1,800-1,900 RMB/ton, increasing cost pressure on cassava ethanol production.
II. International Market Dynamics
1. Price Trends
- United States Ethanol Prices: FOB Houston quotes remain stable at $2.10-2.15 per gallon, supported by corn futures prices.
- Brazil Ethanol Prices: FOB Santos quotes have risen to 2,200-2,300 BRL per cubic meter, driven by enhanced expectations of sugarcane production cuts.
- Europe Ethanol Prices: Rotterdam quotes remain stable at €780-800 per ton, supported by energy demand.
2. Supply Situation
- U.S. ethanol production data for the week remained flat, with inventory declining slightly, while export demand remains robust.
- Brazil's sugarcane ethanol output has decreased due to drought conditions, with supplies expected to tighten in the next quarter.
3. Demand Situation
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has upgraded its global ethanol demand forecast, primarily driven by emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia.
III. Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-term Driving Factors
- The peak season for food-grade ethanol demand supports prices, while industrial-grade ethanol remains strong due to chemical demand.
- High international corn and sugarcane prices provide cost support for ethanol.
- Local supply tightness caused by environmental restrictions makes short-term price increases more likely than decreases.
2. Risk Points
- Expectations of a bumper corn harvest in China may suppress corn ethanol prices.
- A significant drop in international oil prices could weaken ethanol's energy demand.
- Improved weather conditions in Brazil's sugarcane-producing regions could alleviate supply tightness.
IV. Price Forecast
1. Domestic Market
- Industrial-grade Ethanol: Prices are expected to remain in the 6,800-7,200 RMB/ton range in the short term. If chemical demand remains robust, prices may break through 7,200 RMB/ton.
- Food-grade Ethanol: Supported by peak season demand, prices may rise to 7,500-7,800 RMB/ton, though regulatory risks should be monitored.
2. International Market
- U.S. Ethanol Prices: Supported by corn costs, prices are expected to remain between $2.10-2.20 per gallon in the short term.
- Brazil Ethanol Prices: Due to supply tightness, prices may rise to 2,300-2,400 BRL per cubic meter.
3. Cross-Market Linkage
- If international oil prices rebound above $90 per barrel, ethanol energy demand may further strengthen, driving synchronized price increases across domestic and international markets.
Ethanol is a clear, colorless, volatile liquid with a characteristic mild, sweet odor and a burning taste. It is a primary aliphatic alcohol (C₂H₅OH), miscible with water and most organic solvents, with a boiling point of 78.4 °C and a melting point of −114.1 °C. Ethanol serves as a key chemical intermediate in the synthesis of ethyl esters, ethylamines, acetaldehyde, and vinyl acetate, and is widely employed as a solvent across pharmaceuticals, coatings, inks, and personal care products. It is also used in the production of alcoholic beverages, fuel blends (e.g., E10, E85), and as a disinfectant in healthcare formulations.
MedicalA solution of 70-85% of ethanol is commonly used as a disinfectant and it kills organisms by denaturing their proteins and dissolving their lipids. It is effective against most bacteria and fungi, and many viruses, but is ineffective against bacterial spores. This disinfectant property of ethanol is the reason that alcoholic beverages can be stored for a long time[9]. Ethanol also has many medical uses, and can be found in products such as medicines, medical wipes and as an antiseptic in most antibacterial hand sanitizer gels. Ethanal can also be used as antidote. It competitively blocks the formation of toxic metabolites in toxic alcohol ingestions by having a higher affinity for the enzyme Alcohol Dehydrogenase (ADH). Its chief application is in methanol and ethylene glycol ingestions. Ethanol can be administered by the oral, nasogastric or intravenous route to maintain a blood ethanol concentration of 100-150 mg/dl (22-33 mol/L)[10].FuelEthanol is flammable and burns more cleanly than many other fuels. Ethanol has been used in cars since Henry Ford designed his 1908 Model T to operate on alcohol. In Brazil and the United States, the use of ethanol from sugar cane and grain as car fuel has been promoted by government programs[11].The Brazilian ethanol program started as a way to reduce the reliance on oil imports, but it was soon realized that it had important environmental and social benefits[12]. The fully combusted products of ethanol are only carbon dioxide and water. For this reason, it is environmental friendly and has been used to fuel public buses in the US. However, pure ethanol attacks certain rubber and plastic materials and cannot be used in unmodified car engines[13].The alcohol-based alternative fuel that is blended with gasoline to produce a fuel with a higher octane rating and fewer harmful emissions than unblended gasoline. A mixture containing gasoline with at least 10% ethanol is known as gasohol. Specifically, gasoline with 10% ethanol content is known as E10. Another common gasohol variant is E15, which contains 15% ethanol and 85% gasoline. E15 is only appropriate for use in Flex Fuel vehicles or a very small percentage of the newest vehicles[14]. In addition, E85 is a term used for a mixture of 15% gasoline and 85% ethanol. E85 keeps the fuel system clean because it burns cleaner than regular gas or diesel and doesn't leave behind gummy deposits. Beginning with the model year 1999, a number of vehicles in the U.S. were manufactured so as to be able to run on E85 fuel without modification. These vehicles are often labeled dual fuel or flexible fuel vehicles, since they can automatically detect the type of fuel and change the engine's behavior to compensate for the different ways that they burn in the engine cylinders[15].The use of ethanol-diesel fuel blends is growing around the world, and are designed to provide renewable, cleaner burning fuel alternatives for off-road equipment, buses, semi-trucks and other vehicles that run on diesel fuel. With the addition of ethanol and other fuel additives to diesel, the characteristic black diesel smoke is eliminated and there are significant reductions in particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions. It is also possible to use ethanol for cooking as a replacement for wood, charcoal, propane, or as a substitute for lighting fuels, such as kerosene[16].Brazil and the United States lead the industrial production of ethanol fuel, accounting together for 89% of the world's production in 2008. In comparison with the USA and Brazil, Europe ethanol for fuel production is still very modest. Brazil is the world's second largest producer of ethanol fuel and the world's largest exporter[17].BeverageSignificant volumes of ethanol are produced for the beverage and industrial markets from agricultural feedstock. Ethanol produced for these industries differs from ethanol for fuel only in its strength, which can vary between 96% and 99.9% and in its purity, depending on the end use. Beverage and drinks industry may be the best-known end-user of ethanol. It is used to make many kinds of spirits, such vodka, gin and anisette. High standards and processes are required for ethanal used in the production of spirit drinks.OthersThe ethanol used as an intermediary product by the chemical, pharmaceutical or cosmetics industry is in many cases of the highest and purest possible quality. These are premium markets due to the additional steps in the alcohol production process that are necessary to achieve the required purity. Same high standards and purity requirements apply in food industry, such as flavors and aromas extraction and concentrations, as well as paints and thermometers. Ethanol can be used in de-icer or anti-freeze to clear the car windscreen. It also is contained in perfumes, deodorants, and other cosmetics[18].
Ethanol is highly soluble in water and organic solvents, but poorly soluble in fats and oils. Ethanol itself is a good solvent, which is used in cosmetics, paints and tinctures[2]. Density of ethanol at 68 °F (20 °C) is 789 g/l. Pure ethanol is neutral (pH ~7). Most alcoholic beverages are more or less acidic.Ethanol/ethyl alcohol is highly flammable liquid, hygroscopic, and fully miscible in water. Ethanol is incompatible with a large number of chemicals such as strong oxidising agents, acids, alkali metals, ammonia, hydrazine, peroxides, sodium, acid anhydrides, calcium hypochlorite, chromyl chloride, nitrosyl perchlorate, bromine pentafluoride, perchloric acid, silver nitrate, mercuric nitrate, potassium tert-butoxide, magnesium perchlorate, acid chlorides, platinum, uranium hexafluoride, silver oxide, iodine heptafluoride, acetyl bromide, disulphuryl difluoride, acetyl chloride, permanganic acid, ruthenium (VIII) oxide, uranyl perchlorate, and potassium dioxide.
This chemical is included in Basic Chemicals - Alcohols. See more about what is Ethanol and Ethanol SDS information.
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