In 2023–2024, the United States, Brazil, and France were the leading exporters of ethanol (CAS 64-17-5), collectively accounting for over 60% of global export value, while China, India, and Canada ranked as the top importers. The U.S. and Brazil dominate supply due to large-scale biofuel production capacity, whereas Asian and North American import demand reflects blending mandates and industrial use. Global ethanol trade volumes remained relatively stable in 2024 amid moderate fluctuations in ethanol prices, with emerging import growth observed in Southeast Asia and sustained policy-driven demand in major markets.
Ethanol Market Intelligence Report (July 1, 2026)
I. Recent Price Trends
1. Futures Market
- The closing price of Hydrous Ethanol Futures for July 2026 was BRL 2,384.50 per metric ton, up 0.40% from the previous trading day; the intraday trading range was BRL 2,375.00–2,380.00 per metric ton.
2. Spot Market
- Domestic Market:
- From late July 2025 to June 2026, domestic ethanol prices exhibited narrow-range fluctuations.
- As of July 31, 2025: average producer price stood at RMB 5,677 per metric ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.38% and a year-on-year decline of 5.58%.
- In June 2026: price stabilized at RMB 5,696 per metric ton, up 1.31% month-on-month and down 5.22% year-on-year.
- Regional Price Differentials:
- Heilongjiang Province: Ordinary-grade ethanol priced at approximately RMB 6,700–7,000 per metric ton (tax-inclusive ex-factory);
- Jilin Province: Approximately RMB 6,900–7,050 per metric ton;
- South China region (e.g., Guangdong): Corn-based ethanol priced at ~RMB 7,800–7,850 per metric ton; anhydrous ethanol at ~RMB 8,400–8,500 per metric ton.
3. International Market
- Global fuel ethanol demand continues to grow steadily; 2026 production is projected at 3.296 million metric tons, with demand estimated at 3.262 million metric tons and total market size reaching RMB 1.9797 billion.
- The United States and Brazil remain the world’s top two ethanol producers; China ranks third, with its market share gradually expanding under strong policy support.
II. Market Drivers Analysis
1. Cost Side
- Feedstock Corn Prices:
- In July 2025, domestic corn prices trended downward overall; weekly average price stood at RMB 2,437 per metric ton—up RMB 15 from the prior week—but remained relatively weak, thereby weakening cost support for ethanol.
- By June 2026, corn market activity remained subdued, with feed demand limited to rolling inventory replenishment; upward price momentum further slowed.
2. Supply Side
- Plant Utilization Rates:
- In July 2025: food-grade ethanol plant operations were relatively stable—facilities in Huannan, Jixian, and LaHa (Heilongjiang) remained operational, while Wanhui Run Da and Shenglong plants were shut down—resulting in a mixed supply outlook.
- In June 2026: some producers raised quotations but failed to secure actual orders; downstream chemical industry purchases remained demand-driven, leading to a pullback in transaction prices.
- Capacity Expansion:
- Fuel ethanol capacity continues to ramp up; approximately 220,000 metric tons of new capacity is expected to come online in 2026, concentrated primarily in Jilin and Tieling.
3. Demand Side
- Traditional Demand:
- The baijiu (Chinese liquor) industry entered its seasonal off-peak period; chemical sector procurement remained steady but unspectacular, offering limited demand support.
- Emerging Demand:
- Fuel ethanol demand is being propelled by carbon neutrality policies and nationwide promotion of ethanol-blended gasoline; 2026 demand is forecast to grow 6.6% year-on-year.
- Pharmaceutical-grade ethanol demand is diversifying; rising requirements for high-purity products in personal care and cosmetics sectors are prompting manufacturers in Foshan and elsewhere to upgrade refining processes.
4. Policy & Industry Developments
- Fuel Ethanol:
- Domestic deployment of 1.5-generation fuel ethanol technology is underway, leveraging optimized pre-treatment of corn fiber to reduce production costs.
- Leading enterprises—including SDIC Bioenergy and COFCO Technology—dominate the market; combined fuel ethanol capacity exceeds 3 million metric tons.
- Pharmaceutical Ethanol:
- Regulatory entry barriers are tightening; Foshan-based manufacturers have established regional competitive advantages through advanced rectification technologies and robust quality control systems; Hangkai Chemical and other firms have obtained National High-Tech Enterprise certification.
III. Outlook & Risk Assessment
1. Price Forecast
- Short Term (1–3 months):
- Weak corn prices, fluctuating plant utilization rates, and lack of significant near-term demand catalysts suggest continued narrow-range consolidation; price range is expected to hold between RMB 5,600–5,750 per metric ton.
- Medium-to-Long Term (6–12 months):
- Sustained growth in fuel ethanol demand driven by supportive policies—coupled with potential stabilization of corn prices—may push prices gradually higher, targeting RMB 5,800–6,000 per metric ton.
2. Key Risks
- Feedstock Price Volatility: Prices of corn, cassava, and other raw materials are highly sensitive to weather conditions and policy shifts, posing material cost-side risks.
- Policy Uncertainty: Adjustments in the geographic scope of fuel ethanol mandates or changes to subsidy schemes could materially affect demand growth trajectory.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: Aggressive low-price strategies adopted by smaller players may disrupt market order; compliance risks associated with unlicensed or non-standard producers warrant close monitoring.
3. Strategic Opportunities
- Fuel Ethanol Sector: Technological innovations—including dry-grind concentrated-mash fermentation and corn fiber pre-treatment—present tangible opportunities to lower production costs.
- Pharmaceutical Ethanol Sector: Growing demand for ultra-high-purity, low-impurity products creates market openings for technologically advanced suppliers (e.g., Foshan Hangkai Chemical), enabling them to expand market share.
Ethanol is a clear, colorless, volatile liquid with a characteristic mild, sweet odor and a burning taste. It is a primary aliphatic alcohol (C₂H₅OH), miscible with water and most organic solvents, with a boiling point of 78.4 °C and a melting point of −114.1 °C. Ethanol serves as a key chemical intermediate in the synthesis of ethyl esters, ethylamines, acetaldehyde, and vinyl acetate, and is widely employed as a solvent across pharmaceuticals, coatings, inks, and personal care products. It is also used in the production of alcoholic beverages, fuel blends (e.g., E10, E85), and as a disinfectant in healthcare formulations.
MedicalA solution of 70-85% of ethanol is commonly used as a disinfectant and it kills organisms by denaturing their proteins and dissolving their lipids. It is effective against most bacteria and fungi, and many viruses, but is ineffective against bacterial spores. This disinfectant property of ethanol is the reason that alcoholic beverages can be stored for a long time[9]. Ethanol also has many medical uses, and can be found in products such as medicines, medical wipes and as an antiseptic in most antibacterial hand sanitizer gels. Ethanal can also be used as antidote. It competitively blocks the formation of toxic metabolites in toxic alcohol ingestions by having a higher affinity for the enzyme Alcohol Dehydrogenase (ADH). Its chief application is in methanol and ethylene glycol ingestions. Ethanol can be administered by the oral, nasogastric or intravenous route to maintain a blood ethanol concentration of 100-150 mg/dl (22-33 mol/L)[10].FuelEthanol is flammable and burns more cleanly than many other fuels. Ethanol has been used in cars since Henry Ford designed his 1908 Model T to operate on alcohol. In Brazil and the United States, the use of ethanol from sugar cane and grain as car fuel has been promoted by government programs[11].The Brazilian ethanol program started as a way to reduce the reliance on oil imports, but it was soon realized that it had important environmental and social benefits[12]. The fully combusted products of ethanol are only carbon dioxide and water. For this reason, it is environmental friendly and has been used to fuel public buses in the US. However, pure ethanol attacks certain rubber and plastic materials and cannot be used in unmodified car engines[13].The alcohol-based alternative fuel that is blended with gasoline to produce a fuel with a higher octane rating and fewer harmful emissions than unblended gasoline. A mixture containing gasoline with at least 10% ethanol is known as gasohol. Specifically, gasoline with 10% ethanol content is known as E10. Another common gasohol variant is E15, which contains 15% ethanol and 85% gasoline. E15 is only appropriate for use in Flex Fuel vehicles or a very small percentage of the newest vehicles[14]. In addition, E85 is a term used for a mixture of 15% gasoline and 85% ethanol. E85 keeps the fuel system clean because it burns cleaner than regular gas or diesel and doesn't leave behind gummy deposits. Beginning with the model year 1999, a number of vehicles in the U.S. were manufactured so as to be able to run on E85 fuel without modification. These vehicles are often labeled dual fuel or flexible fuel vehicles, since they can automatically detect the type of fuel and change the engine's behavior to compensate for the different ways that they burn in the engine cylinders[15].The use of ethanol-diesel fuel blends is growing around the world, and are designed to provide renewable, cleaner burning fuel alternatives for off-road equipment, buses, semi-trucks and other vehicles that run on diesel fuel. With the addition of ethanol and other fuel additives to diesel, the characteristic black diesel smoke is eliminated and there are significant reductions in particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions. It is also possible to use ethanol for cooking as a replacement for wood, charcoal, propane, or as a substitute for lighting fuels, such as kerosene[16].Brazil and the United States lead the industrial production of ethanol fuel, accounting together for 89% of the world's production in 2008. In comparison with the USA and Brazil, Europe ethanol for fuel production is still very modest. Brazil is the world's second largest producer of ethanol fuel and the world's largest exporter[17].BeverageSignificant volumes of ethanol are produced for the beverage and industrial markets from agricultural feedstock. Ethanol produced for these industries differs from ethanol for fuel only in its strength, which can vary between 96% and 99.9% and in its purity, depending on the end use. Beverage and drinks industry may be the best-known end-user of ethanol. It is used to make many kinds of spirits, such vodka, gin and anisette. High standards and processes are required for ethanal used in the production of spirit drinks.OthersThe ethanol used as an intermediary product by the chemical, pharmaceutical or cosmetics industry is in many cases of the highest and purest possible quality. These are premium markets due to the additional steps in the alcohol production process that are necessary to achieve the required purity. Same high standards and purity requirements apply in food industry, such as flavors and aromas extraction and concentrations, as well as paints and thermometers. Ethanol can be used in de-icer or anti-freeze to clear the car windscreen. It also is contained in perfumes, deodorants, and other cosmetics[18].
Ethanol is highly soluble in water and organic solvents, but poorly soluble in fats and oils. Ethanol itself is a good solvent, which is used in cosmetics, paints and tinctures[2]. Density of ethanol at 68 °F (20 °C) is 789 g/l. Pure ethanol is neutral (pH ~7). Most alcoholic beverages are more or less acidic.Ethanol/ethyl alcohol is highly flammable liquid, hygroscopic, and fully miscible in water. Ethanol is incompatible with a large number of chemicals such as strong oxidising agents, acids, alkali metals, ammonia, hydrazine, peroxides, sodium, acid anhydrides, calcium hypochlorite, chromyl chloride, nitrosyl perchlorate, bromine pentafluoride, perchloric acid, silver nitrate, mercuric nitrate, potassium tert-butoxide, magnesium perchlorate, acid chlorides, platinum, uranium hexafluoride, silver oxide, iodine heptafluoride, acetyl bromide, disulphuryl difluoride, acetyl chloride, permanganic acid, ruthenium (VIII) oxide, uranyl perchlorate, and potassium dioxide.
This chemical is included in Basic Chemicals - Alcohols. See more about what is Ethanol and Ethanol SDS information.
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