Phthalic anhydride

Phthalic Anhydride Market Intelligence Report (April 29, 2026)

I. Recent Price Trends
1. National Average Price
- From April 16 to 24, 2026, the national average price of phthalic anhydride in mainstream markets declined continuously from RMB 8,635.71/ton to RMB 8,371.43/ton, representing a cumulative decline of 2.71% and an average daily decline of approximately 0.59%.
- On April 24 alone, the price fell by 0.59%, extending the weak, range-bound trend observed since mid-April.

2. Regional Markets
- Jiangsu Region: As of April 28, mainstream quotations for ortho-based phthalic anhydride stood at RMB 8,800–9,000/ton, while naphthalene-based material was quoted at RMB 7,800–8,200/ton; prices stabilized but transaction volumes remained sluggish.
- North China Region: On April 29, 2021, ortho-based phthalic anhydride was priced at RMB 6,500–6,700/ton and naphthalene-based at RMB 6,300–6,400/ton (historical reference only; current regional price spreads may have widened).
- South China Region: On April 29, 2021, ortho-based phthalic anhydride was priced at RMB 6,600–6,700/ton and naphthalene-based at RMB 6,300–6,500/ton (same note as above).

II. Cost-Driven Dynamics
1. Raw Material Prices
- Ortho-Xylene (OX): The 2025 average price declined by 12% year-on-year versus 2024; however, with heightened maintenance expectations across Asian OX facilities in Q2 2026, prices are likely to fluctuate upward, gradually reinforcing cost support for phthalic anhydride.
- Industrial Naphthalene: Prices have stabilized, easing cost pressure on naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride production; yet, operating rates at naphthalene-based plants remain low—only 50%–60%—constraining supply.

2. Crude Oil Impact
- Crude oil prices have been range-bound, weakening their pass-through effect on phthalic anhydride costs; market focus has accordingly shifted toward fundamental supply-demand dynamics.

III. Supply-Demand Landscape
1. Supply Side
- Capacity: Total domestic capacity stands at ~2.4 million tons (ortho-based: 1.63 million tons; naphthalene-based: 0.77 million tons). An additional 50,000 tons were added in 2025; no new capacity is scheduled for 2026.
- Operating Rates: Industry-wide operating rates averaged 50%–75% in 2025 and are projected to decline further in 2026, alleviating supply pressure.
- Inventory: Producer inventories remain at low levels; however, spot market supply is ample, and traders’ willingness to sell has increased.

2. Demand Side
- Downstream Plasticizers: DOP prices declined by 10.95% in 2025; the market remains weak as of April 2026, with enterprise operating rates at 50%–65%; procurement is largely driven by immediate demand.
- Real Estate Policy: Anticipated policy easing may gradually boost plasticizer demand; however, near-term supportive impact remains limited.
- Exports: Increased export volumes in 2023 provided pricing tailwinds, but no significant export-driven momentum has emerged for 2026 thus far.

IV. Market Sentiment & Operational Recommendations
1. Market Sentiment
- A prevailing wait-and-see attitude dominates; downstream buyers procure strictly on demand, high-end transactions face resistance, and traders increasingly offer material at discounted prices.
- Producers’ attempts to hold prices steady are counterbalanced by persistently weak demand, resulting in a lack of clear directional guidance for the market.

2. Operational Recommendations
- Short Term: Monitor OX price movements and downstream operating rate changes closely; maintain lean inventory levels to mitigate downside price risk.
- Medium-to-Long Term: Should OX prices rise as expected in Q2 and real estate policy stimulus begin delivering tangible results, phthalic anhydride prices may rebound toward RMB 9,000/ton—providing an opportune window for strategic restocking.

V. Outlook for Q2 2026
1. Price Trend
- “Strong First, Then Stable”: Upward pressure from rising OX prices—combined with lower industry operating rates—suggests phthalic anhydride prices may peak around RMB 9,000/ton in Q2 before entering a phase of weak consolidation.
- Key Risks: Sharp decline in crude oil prices; sustained weakness in downstream plasticizer demand; competitive pricing pressure from low-cost naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride.

2. Critical Variables
- Timing and progress of OX plant maintenance shutdowns;
- Effectiveness and implementation pace of real estate policy adjustments;
- Changes in export order volumes.