Butyric Acid

## n-Butyric Acid Market Intelligence Report (October 12 – November 12, 2026)

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### I. Price Trends

| Date | Region/Company | Specification | Price (CNY/ton) | Change |
|------|----------------|---------------|-----------------|--------|
| Oct 14–18 | East China · Zibo, Shandong | ≥99.5% | 6,900 | Stable |
| Oct 14–18 | Domestic (China) | ≥99.5% | 6,000–6,100 | Slight fluctuation |
| Oct 14–18 | Domestic (China) | 99% min | 7,500 | Stable |
| Oct 14–18 | Domestic (China) | Purity ≥99% | 6,500 | Stable |
| Oct 16 | Jinan, Shandong (Imported) | 99.5% | 10,500–11,000 | — |
| Nov 4 | Zibo, Shandong · Raya Chemical | ≥99.5% | 6,900 | Stable |
| Nov 11 | Jinan, Shandong · Zesheng Chemical | Domestic | 6,100 | Stable |
| Nov 11 | Shandong · Jinxinda New Materials | Domestic | 6,000 | Stable |
| Nov 11 | Zibo, Shandong · Raya Chemical | ≥99.5% | 6,900 | Stable |
| Nov 11 | Shandong · Jiaming Chemical | Purity ≥99% | 6,500 | Stable |

**Price Trend Characteristics:** Over the past month, domestic n-butyric acid prices have remained stable at low levels, with mainstream transactions concentrated in the 6,000–6,900 CNY/ton range. This represents a significant drop from the high range of 12,500–13,500 CNY/ton mentioned in mid-October AI intelligence reports. The three-month average price is 9,661 CNY/ton, with current prices sitting at a one-year low.

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### II. Supply-Side Intelligence

- **Industry Operating Rate:** The average industry operating rate is approximately 75%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month. However, regional supply has contracted due to environmental restrictions and equipment maintenance at some facilities.
- **Manufacturer Inventory:** Average inventory days have decreased to 10–12 days, below the historical average for the same period. The supply-tight situation persists but has not worsened further.
- **Imports:** August import volumes decreased by 12% month-on-month. Tight supply from Southeast Asian vendors and rising shipping costs have passively pushed up landed prices. However, mid-October imported supply was quoted at 10,500–11,000 CNY/ton, narrowing the price gap with domestic products.
- **Regional Divergence:** Supply is tight in East and South China, while price competition is fierce in North China due to concentrated production capacity. Quotes in Zibo, Shandong (6,900 CNY/ton) are higher than those in Jinan and Liaocheng (6,000–6,100 CNY/ton).

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### III. Demand-Side Intelligence

- **Coatings Industry:** Demand increased by approximately 8% month-on-month, driven by improved real estate completion data. However, acceptance of high prices remains limited; willingness to purchase has recovered in the current low-price environment.
- **Fragrance Intermediates:** Demand is stable, with orders concentrated among leading enterprises. Small and medium-sized customers are purchasing cautiously.
- **Plasticizers:** Demand growth has slowed to 3% due to the price advantage of substitutes.
- **Export Market:** August export volumes increased by 15% year-on-year, primarily flowing to India and Southeast Asia. However, RMB appreciation has weakened price competitiveness for some products.
- **Downstream Rigid Demand:** In the current low-price range, downstream users are primarily making rigid-demand purchases. Restocking willingness has increased, but wait-and-see sentiment remains strong.

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### IV. Cost-Side Intelligence

- **Upstream n-Butanol:** Prices are oscillating at high levels between 8,800–9,200 CNY/ton, increasing n-butyric acid production costs by approximately 400 CNY/ton.
- **Industry Profitability:** Gross margins have compressed to 12%–15%. Some companies are maintaining profitability through process optimization or hedging.
- **Environmental Costs:** Tightening environmental policies have led to increased maintenance plans at some companies, further pushing up production costs.

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### V. Analysis and Judgment

1. **Cliff-like Price Drop:** The significant gap between the 12,500–13,500 CNY/ton range mentioned in mid-October intelligence and the current 6,000–6,900 CNY/ton quotes indicates a rapid market decline in mid-to-late October. This may be attributed to lower-than-expected downstream demand, the release of new production capacity, or the bursting of a previous high-price bubble.
2. **Shift in Supply-Demand Dynamics:** Despite low prices, manufacturer inventory is low and operating rates are recovering, indicating that supply is not significantly oversupplied. The price drop is driven more by weak demand and lack of market confidence.
3. **Significant Regional Price Gaps:** The 800–900 CNY/ton price gap between Zibo, Shandong (6,900) and Jinan/Liaocheng (6,000–6,100) reflects differences in logistics costs, brand premiums, and regional supply-demand dynamics.
4. **Weakened Import Substitution Effect:** Imported supply at 10,500–11,000 CNY/ton remains higher than domestic products. The cost-performance advantage of domestic products is clear, leaving limited room for import substitution.

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### VI. Forecasts

| Period | Forecast Range | Core Logic |
|--------|----------------|------------|
| **Short-term (1 month)** | 6,000–7,000 CNY/ton (Sideways) | Sideways movement at low levels; downstream rigid demand supports the bottom, but there is a lack of upward momentum. |
| **Medium-term (3 months)** | 6,500–8,000 CNY/ton | If n-butanol prices fall or downstream demand seasonally recovers, prices may see a mild recovery. |
| **Upside Risk** | Break above 8,000 CNY/ton | Tightened environmental policies, sharp rise in raw material costs, or better-than-expected export orders. |
| **Downside Risk** | Drop below 5,500 CNY/ton | Sustained weak downstream demand, concentrated release of new capacity, or macroeconomic pressure. |

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### VII. Strategic Recommendations

- **Producers:** Closely monitor n-butanol price trends, control inventory turnover, and appropriately increase pre-sales to lock in profits.
- **Traders:** In the current low-inventory, low-price environment, replenish inventory in small, staggered batches. Strictly control positions to avoid further downside risk.
- **Downstream Users:** For rigid-demand purchases, consider building positions at low prices. Lock in costs through long-term contracts and watch for the stocking window before the traditional off-season in December–January.