Palmitic acid

Hexadecanoic Acid (Palmitic Acid) Market Intelligence Report (July 29, 2026)

I. Recent Price Trends
1. Benchmark Price
- July 29, 2026: Business Society benchmark price is RMB 10,500/ton (down 8.7% from RMB 11,500/ton at the beginning of July).
- July Price Volatility:
July 1–July 1: RMB 11,500/ton (unchanged);
July 2: RMB 11,000/ton (down 4.35%);
July 3–July 29: RMB 10,500/ton (remained stable).

2. Regional Price Differentials
- Shanghai Region: Shanghai Lanyan Cosmetics Co., Ltd. quotes RMB 10,500/ton (imported; packaging: 25 kg/bag; purity: 99.5%).
- Shandong Region: Shandong Hongyang Chemical Co., Ltd. quotes RMB 7,400/ton (imported; minimum order: 11 tons; purity: 99.5%).
- Guangdong Region: Guangzhou Yehusheng Chemical Co., Ltd. distributes the Indonesian 'Green Treasure' brand, priced at RMB 11/kg (equivalent to ~RMB 11,000/ton); inventory remains ample (965,000 kg).

II. Market Driver Analysis
1. Supply-Side Factors
- Capacity Release: Southeast Asian palm oil-producing countries (Indonesia and Malaysia) have entered their high-yield season; abundant crude palm oil supply has reduced production costs for palmitic acid.
- Import Pressure: Low-priced supplies in the Shandong region (RMB 7,400/ton) are exerting downward pressure on market prices, reflecting an expanded import arbitrage margin and traders’ aggressive inventory liquidation.

2. Demand-Side Factors
- Downstream Sector Divergence:
Personal Care & Household Cleaning: Stable demand for soaps and detergents, but summer represents a traditional off-season, resulting in lower procurement volumes month-on-month.
Industrial Applications: Demand from grease and paint industries remains weak short-term due to heat-related construction delays.
Food Industry: As a food additive (e.g., emulsifier), palmitic acid exhibits relatively inelastic demand; however, this segment accounts for only ~15% of total demand.

3. Cost Support
- Crude Palm Oil Futures Prices (July 2026): Down 12% year-on-year, directly reducing palmitic acid production costs and widening manufacturers’ pricing flexibility.

III. Risks and Challenges
1. Regional Price Disarray: A RMB 3,100/ton price gap between Shandong and Shanghai reflects disparities in logistics costs, brand premium, and trading strategies—potentially triggering cross-regional arbitrage activities.
2. Inventory Pressure: Guangdong’s elevated inventory level (965 metric tons) may trigger another round of promotional price cuts if demand remains sluggish.
3. Policy Uncertainty: Potential adjustments to Southeast Asian palm oil export duties, alongside tightening domestic environmental regulations (e.g., stricter wastewater discharge standards), could impact supply stability.

IV. Short-Term Outlook (August 2026)
1. Price Trend
- Benchmark Price: Expected to remain within RMB 10,000–10,500/ton; further decline to RMB 9,800/ton is possible if low-cost Shandong supplies persist.
- Regional Divergence: Prices in Shanghai and Guangdong regions may modestly follow downward trends, though brand premiums (e.g., Green Treasure, Yeshu Brand) will continue supporting quotations in the premium segment.

2. Demand Outlook
- Mid-to-late August may see a 10–15% month-on-month demand rebound as downstream industries begin prepping for the traditionally robust 'Golden September–Silver October' production season—though this is unlikely to fully offset the current oversupply condition.

3. Strategic Recommendations
- Buyers: Consider phased procurement of low-cost supplies (e.g., Shandong’s RMB 7,400/ton lots) to hedge against potential future price increases.
- Traders: Closely monitor Southeast Asian palm oil output data and domestic inventory digestion progress to dynamically adjust basis pricing strategies.
- Producers: Optimize production processes to reduce energy consumption and enhance profitability by shifting toward higher-value products (e.g., food-grade palmitic acid).