1,2-BUTADIENE

1,2-Butadiene: Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Dynamics
- Market Quotations: Recent market quotations for 1,2-butadiene exhibit considerable diversity. Depending on the supplier and product specifications, prices range broadly from RMB 2/kg to RMB 160/kg. For example, Hubei Xinmingtai Chemical Co., Ltd. offers industrial-grade 1,2-butadiene (purity: 98%) in drum packaging at RMB 2/kg; whereas Nona Chemical offers high-purity (99%) 1,2-butadiene priced as high as RMB 160/kg.
- Price Volatility: Prices have remained relatively stable recently, with no significant upward or downward fluctuations. Some suppliers have maintained unchanged pricing—for instance, Hubei Xinfu Biotechnology Co., Ltd. supplies industrial-grade 1,2-butadiene (purity: 99%) in 25 kg drums at RMB 15/kg, unchanged since the last update.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Status: Domestic chemical enterprises—such as Hubei Hengjingrui Chemical Co., Ltd. and Hubei Xinmingtai Chemical Co., Ltd.—are the primary domestic suppliers of 1,2-butadiene. These companies possess stable production capacity and reliable supply capabilities sufficient to meet current market demand.
- Demand Status: As a chemical raw material, 1,2-butadiene is primarily utilized in pharmaceuticals and chemical manufacturing sectors. With steady growth in downstream industries, demand for 1,2-butadiene continues to rise moderately. However, because 1,2-butadiene is not the dominant consumption form of butadiene (the principal commercial isomer being 1,3-butadiene), its overall demand volume remains comparatively small.

III. Market Developments
- Industry Updates: The broader chemical industry has maintained stable development recently, without major policy adjustments or market disruptions—providing favorable conditions for stable operation of the 1,2-butadiene market.
- Impact of Related Products: As a structural isomer of butadiene, the market price of 1,2-butadiene is influenced—albeit indirectly—by the 1,3-butadiene market. Recently, the 1,3-butadiene market has exhibited a weak consolidation trend; while this may exert limited psychological influence on the 1,2-butadiene market, its actual impact remains minimal.

Analysis & Assessment

I. Price Trend Outlook
- Short-Term Trend: In the near term, 1,2-butadiene prices are expected to remain stable. Given relatively balanced supply-demand fundamentals and absence of strong market catalysts, price fluctuations are anticipated to be modest.
- Long-Term Trend: Over the longer horizon, steadily growing downstream demand—coupled with industry transformation and upgrading—may gradually increase requirements for high-purity 1,2-butadiene. Nevertheless, as 1,2-butadiene remains a niche product rather than a mainstream derivative, its pricing trajectory will depend predominantly on supply-demand dynamics and raw material cost factors.

II. Market Risks
- Supply-Demand Risk: Although current supply-demand conditions appear stable, any major shifts in downstream industries or disruptions in raw material supply could significantly impact the 1,2-butadiene market.
- Price Volatility Risk: Due to its relatively small market scale and limited number of participants, 1,2-butadiene pricing may be disproportionately sensitive to actions taken by individual enterprises.

Forecast

I. Price Forecast
- Short-Term Forecast: Over the next week, 1,2-butadiene prices are expected to remain stable with only minor fluctuations.
- Long-Term Forecast: Looking ahead, steady downstream industry growth and gradual expansion of market demand may support a mild upward price trend for 1,2-butadiene. However, the magnitude of any increase will be contingent upon multiple interrelated factors—including supply-demand balance, raw material costs, and macroeconomic conditions.

II. Market Trends
- Industry Trend: As China’s chemical industry advances toward transformation, upgrading, and green development, demand for high-quality, environmentally sustainable chemical feedstocks is expected to grow progressively—creating new opportunities for premium products such as 1,2-butadiene.
- Market Trend: The 1,2-butadiene market is projected to sustain steady growth, with gradual expansion in overall market size. Concurrently, competitive intensity is likely to intensify, requiring enterprises to continuously enhance product quality and service standards to remain competitive.