Dimethyl carbonate

Carbonate Dimethyl Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence

1. Price Trends
- Base Price: According to Shengyishe data, the benchmark price of dimethyl carbonate (DMC) on July 7, 2026, was RMB 3,733.33 per ton, representing a 0.89% decline from the beginning-of-month level (RMB 3,766.67/ton), and reaching an annual low.
- Enterprise Quotations: Recently, Shandong Zhuohang New Materials Co., Ltd. reduced its ex-factory DMC price; the benchmark price dropped from RMB 3,766.67/ton on July 3 to RMB 3,733.33/ton on July 7.
- National Market Benchmark Price: Commodity information sources indicate that between June 25 and July 3, 2026, the national average mainstream market price for DMC fluctuated between RMB 3,895/ton and RMB 3,880/ton; on July 3, it stood at RMB 3,880/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day.

2. Capacity and Production
- Total Capacity: As of the end of 2025, China’s total DMC production capacity reached 4.025 million tons/year, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33%.
- Output: In 2025, China’s DMC output totaled 1.965 million tons, up 15.6% year-on-year; industry capacity utilization rose to approximately 53%.

3. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Surplus: Domestic DMC capacity significantly exceeds downstream consumption demand, sustaining a structural supply surplus throughout the year. Prices rose steadily during the third quarter—traditionally a period of concentrated plant maintenance—but subsequently declined as facilities resumed operations.
- Downstream Demand: Electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate are the two primary downstream application sectors for DMC. In 2025, electrolyte solvents consumed 870,000 tons of DMC, accounting for 50.4% of total consumption; polycarbonate accounted for 39%.

4. New Capacity Additions and Projects
- New Capacity: In 2025, five new DMC production units were commissioned in China, adding a total capacity of 430,000 tons/year. These new facilities are geographically dispersed, with Northwest China emerging as the core region experiencing the fastest capacity expansion.
- Under-Construction Projects: The Phase II project of Ordos Shuangxin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.’s industrial waste gas comprehensive utilization initiative—a 100,000-ton/year DMC facility—is currently under construction. Scheduled for construction from June 2026 to April 2028, this project will bring Shuangxin’s total DMC capacity to 200,000 tons/year upon completion.

II. Analysis and Judgment

1. Causes of Price Volatility
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: Persistent oversupply in the DMC market, coupled with slower-than-expected downstream demand growth, continues to weigh on pricing.
- Cost Factors: Fluctuations in upstream raw material prices impact DMC production costs, thereby influencing market pricing.
- Market Competition: Intensifying competition from new entrants has triggered frequent price wars, further compressing profit margins.

2. Industry Trends
- Capacity Expansion: Domestic DMC capacity is expanding continuously, likely exacerbating the existing oversupply situation.
- Demand Growth: Downstream sectors—including electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate—are expected to sustain demand growth; however, their growth rates may lag behind the pace of capacity expansion.
- Margin Compression: Inefficient cost pass-through along the value chain and aggressive downstream bargaining power have forced DMC prices into a prolonged low-level oscillation, severely compressing profitability.

III. Forecast

1. Short-Term Forecast (Q3 2026)
- Price Trend: Prices are likely to rise during Q3 2026, driven by scheduled plant maintenance and robust seasonal demand.
- Supply-Demand Balance: Q3 is traditionally the peak period for industry-wide maintenance shutdowns, tightening supply. Concurrently, demand from downstream sectors—particularly electrolyte solvents—strengthens seasonally, supporting upward price momentum.

2. Long-Term Forecast (Q4 2026 and Beyond)
- Price Trend: DMC prices are projected to decline modestly in Q4 2026, though the magnitude is expected to be limited. Downstream sector capacity utilization is anticipated to weaken in Q4, and newly added capacity is unlikely to translate promptly into effective consumption.
- Industry Consolidation: Confronted with chronic overcapacity and shrinking margins, the DMC industry urgently requires structural consolidation and optimization, shifting toward high-purity, high-value-added product segments.
- Market Demand: With rapid development in new energy and advanced materials industries, demand for DMC in applications such as electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate is expected to grow steadily. However, this growth may be constrained by ongoing capacity expansion and intensified market competition.