Solvent Naphtha (petroleum), Light Arom.

# Aromatic Solvent Oil Market Dynamics Intelligence (Mid-October to Mid-November 2026)

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## I. Price Overview

| Product | Region/Manufacturer | Latest Quote (CNY/ton) | Quote Date |
|---------|---------------------|------------------------|------------|
| Aromatic Solvent Oil (Full series D40-D200) | Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical (Jiangsu) | **11,000** | Nov 10 |
| Aromatic Solvent Oil (Full series D40-D200) | Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical (Hubei) | **8,800** | Nov 10 |
| Aromatic Solvent Oil (D40-D120) | Shandong Fushengyong Trading (Shandong) | **7,000** | Nov 10 |
| Aromatic Solvent Oil (D40-D200) | Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical (Jiangsu) | 8,800 | Nov 6 |
| Aromatic Solvent Oil (D40-D200) | Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical (Hubei) | 8,800 | Nov 6 |
| Aromatic 150# (Initial boiling point 185°C) | Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical (Hubei) | 8,800 | Nov 6 |
| 120# Solvent Oil | Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical (Jiangsu) | 8,800 | Nov 6 |
| 120# Solvent Oil | Shandong Hanyue Chemical (Shandong) | 8,500 | Nov 6 |
| 200# Solvent Oil | Shandong Hanyue Chemical (Shandong) | 8,900 (8.9 CNY/kg) | Nov 6 |

**Key Finding**: In Jiangsu, the quoted price for aromatic solvent oil surged from 8,800 CNY/ton on Nov 6 to 11,000 CNY/ton on Nov 10, representing a single-week increase of **25%**. Prices in Hubei and Shandong remained unchanged at 8,800 CNY/ton and 7,000 CNY/ton, respectively, widening the significant regional price gap.

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## II. Upstream Feedstock and Related Product Linkages

| Indicator | Data | Remarks |
|-----------|------|---------|
| Heavy Aromatics Spot Price | 8,004 CNY/ton (Oct 26) | Cumulative 30-day increase of **150.05%** |
| WTI Crude Oil | USD 86.53/barrel (+0.57%) | Nov 10 |
| Brent Crude Oil | USD 92.76/barrel (+1.39%) | Nov 10 |
| SC Crude Oil Main Contract | CNY 584.1/barrel (-2.54%) | Nov 10 |
| 2026 Solvent Oil Year-to-Date High | 9,113 CNY/ton (September) | Reached 8,975 CNY/ton in October |
| 2026 Solvent Oil Year-to-Date Low | 5,553 CNY/ton (Jan-Feb) | — |
| 2026 Jan-Oct Average Price | 7,627 CNY/ton | Year-on-year increase of **13.55%** |

The 150% surge in heavy aromatics over one month has directly transmitted to the cost side of aromatic solvent oil, creating a strong price floor effect.

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## III. In-Depth Analysis of Driving Factors

1. **Cost Side: High-level support from crude oil and naphtha**
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global oil markets, with WTI and Brent crude oil holding in the USD 86-93/barrel range. Naphtha feedstock prices remain elevated, and resources are tight. The 150% single-month surge in heavy aromatics in October serves as clear evidence. As a downstream derivative of heavy aromatics, the cost transmission chain to aromatic solvent oil is clear and intense.

2. **Supply Side: Low operating rates limit supply increments**
Domestic refineries are largely maintaining low operating rates, with some enterprises experiencing unstable operations due to feedstock issues and maintenance schedules. Low port inventories and supply increments that fail to meet demand have created a \"tight balance\" structure. The spike in Jiangsu prices to 11,000 CNY/ton reflects localized supply tightness.

3. **Demand Side: Downstream absorption capacity is limited; high prices suppress activity**
Downstream applications of solvent oil include coatings, resins, carbon black, and fine chemicals. Currently, downstream profit recovery is limited, and market absorption capacity is clearly insufficient at high price levels. Purchasers are primarily driven by rigid demand, resulting in low market activity.

4. **Regional Divergence: Jiangsu leads the rally, Shandong remains a low point**
Nanjing Runsheng's quote in Jiangsu at 11,000 CNY/ton is **57%** higher than Shandong Fushengyong's 7,000 CNY/ton, reflecting significant differences in regional supply-demand structures, logistics costs, and manufacturer pricing strategies.

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## IV. Analytical Judgment

**Current Market Characterization: High-level consolidation with a ceiling above and a floor below; regional divergence is intensifying.**

- **Bullish Logic**: Continued support from crude oil news flows; the 150% cost transmission from heavy aromatics has not yet been fully digested; the low-inventory structure is unlikely to change in the short term.
- **Bearish Logic**: Traditional demand weakens in Q4; high prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness; downward expectations for crude oil and naphtha in Nov-Dec; the oversupply structure persists.

The 11,000 CNY/ton quote in Jiangsu is approaching the year-to-date high range (9,113 CNY/ton in September), posing a clear risk of a pullback from the peak. Conversely, the 7,000 CNY/ton low in Shandong reflects weak regional demand.

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## V. Market Outlook

| Timeframe | Forecast | Core Rationale |
|-----------|----------|----------------|
| **Mid-to-late November** | Prices will peak first and then decline, with the center of gravity gradually shifting downward | Strengthened downward expectations for crude oil and naphtha; enterprises producing based on sales; weakening demand |
| **December** | Weak consolidation, potentially falling to the 8,000-8,500 CNY/ton range | Traditional off-season combined with weakening cost support; the oversupply structure is difficult to reverse |
| **Q1 2027** | Watch for signals of stabilization | If crude oil stabilizes and maintenance activities concentrate, prices may find support at lower levels |

**Risk Warning**: If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate again, causing a pulse-like surge in oil prices, aromatic solvent oil may briefly break above current high levels. Conversely, if expectations of a global economic recession deepen, a collapse in demand will accelerate price declines. It is recommended to closely monitor the key support level of USD 80/barrel for WTI crude oil and changes in domestic refinery operating rates.