1,1,1,2-Tetrafluoroethane

I. Recent Market Dynamics
1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: Quotations from major domestic R134a manufacturers have recently shown a slight upward trend. In some regions, spot transaction prices have increased by approximately 300–500 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month.
- International Market: In Asia, Chinese export prices have been raised, with FOB prices increasing by approximately 50–80 USD/ton compared to previous levels. In Europe, prices have risen by about 3%–5% due to raw material supply constraints and higher energy costs. In North America, prices remain relatively stable, though some traders are showing intentions to raise prices.
2. Supply Conditions
- Domestic production operating rates are maintained at around 70%–75%. Some manufacturers have reduced output due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues.
- Imports: Recent import volumes have slightly decreased, primarily due to rising international shipping costs and adjustments in export policies of certain countries.
3. Demand Conditions
- Automotive Refrigerant Sector: With rising temperatures, the frequency of air conditioning use in vehicles has increased, leading to a gradual rise in demand for R134a. Notably, the demand for environmentally friendly refrigerants in the new energy vehicle market has grown significantly.
- Industrial Refrigeration Sector: Demand in cold chain logistics, commercial refrigeration, and other industries remains stable, maintaining a certain level of procurement volume for R134a.
4. Cost Factors
- The price of the main raw material, trichloroethylene, has remained relatively stable recently. However, the price of hydrofluoric acid has shown an upward trend due to tight fluorite ore supply, strengthening cost support for R134a.

II. Analysis and Assessment
1. Reasons for Price Increases
- Supply Side: Low operating rates of production enterprises and reduced output from some manufacturers, coupled with decreased import volumes, have led to tight overall market supply, driving prices up.
- Demand Side: Increased demand in both automotive and industrial refrigeration sectors, particularly with the arrival of the peak season in the automotive market, provides strong support for prices.
- Cost Side: Rising hydrofluoric acid prices have increased R134a production costs, prompting manufacturers to raise prices.
2. Market Contradictions
- Tight Supply vs. Growing Demand: Current market supply cannot fully meet growing demand, but high prices may dampen the procurement enthusiasm of some downstream buyers.
- Cost Push vs. Market Competition: Rising costs necessitate price increases, but intense market competition limits the room for manufacturers to raise prices.

III. Forecasts
1. Short-Term (1–2 Weeks)
- Price: R134a prices are expected to continue a slight upward trend, with an increase of approximately 200–400 RMB/ton, driven mainly by tight supply and demand support.
- Supply: Production operating rates may rise slightly, but overall supply is unlikely to increase significantly. Import volumes are expected to remain limited in the short term.
- Demand: Demand for automotive refrigerants will remain robust, while industrial refrigeration demand will stay stable. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is expected to remain high.
2. Medium-Term (1–2 Months)
- Price: If hydrofluoric acid prices continue to rise or the tight supply situation persists, R134a prices may further increase by 500–800 RMB/ton. If raw material prices stabilize or supply improves, the price increase will narrow.
- Supply: As maintenance periods end and new capacity comes online, supply may gradually increase, though import conditions remain uncertain.
- Demand: The automotive peak season will continue, and industrial refrigeration demand will remain stable. However, high prices may lead some downstream enterprises to adjust their procurement strategies.
3. Long-Term (3–6 Months)
- Price: Price trends will depend on supply-demand dynamics and raw material cost changes. If supply increases significantly and demand growth slows, prices may decline. If supply remains tight and costs stay high, prices will remain at elevated levels.
- Supply: Domestic capacity may be further released, and import conditions will be heavily influenced by the international market. Overall supply is expected to increase.
- Demand: The growth trend in the automotive market is expected to continue, and industrial refrigeration demand will remain stable. However, the impact of the macroeconomic environment on demand should be monitored.