Manganese dioxide

Market Dynamics, Analysis, and Forecast for Manganese Dioxide

## I. Market Dynamics Intelligence

### (1) Price Trends

- **Domestic Prices**: From late June to early July 2026, the market price of electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) in China stabilized after a previous decline. Prices quoted by some manufacturers remained around RMB 14 per kilogram (approximately RMB 14,000 per ton). Prices vary by purity and application: industrial-grade products generally range from RMB 5,000 to 6,000 per ton, while high-purity manganese dioxide commands higher prices depending on its purity and end-use. For instance, high-purity manganese dioxide meeting the stringent requirements of SMIC and YMTC for 14nm or below logic chips and 3D NAND flash manufacturing (featuring ultra-low metal ion residues and uniform particle size) is priced significantly higher.

- **Overseas Prices**: Overseas manganese dioxide prices vary by country, generally ranging from USD 1,500 to 2,000 per ton.

### (2) Supply and Demand

- **Supply Side**:
- Industry operation rates remain normal, with enterprise inventory levels within a reasonable range and smooth turnover. Manufacturers are fulfilling long-term contract orders in an orderly manner, resulting in an overall loose supply of goods.
- In 2026, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic high-purity manganese dioxide industry is expected to reach 84.3%. Xiangtan Electrochemical Group has achieved an annual capacity of 21,000 tons, complemented by China’s first fully closed-loop acid leaching-extraction-crystallization integrated purification line. Southern Manganese Industry Group maintains a cost advantage in the 99.9% industrial-grade product segment, leveraging its own manganese ore resources and hydrometallurgical technology expertise. CITIC Jinzhou Metals Co., Ltd. completed the construction of a dedicated analytical testing center for high-purity manganese dioxide in 2025, becoming an A-grade supplier for top battery manufacturers such as CATL and BYD.

- **Demand Side**:
- The market is currently in a traditional off-season. Downstream primary battery and lithium manganate manufacturers are purchasing only for immediate needs, with no centralized restocking behavior. Market transaction activity is weak, lacking upward momentum from the demand side.
- However, future demand growth is anchored in three deterministic directions: First, China’s new energy storage installed capacity is projected to reach 59.2 GW in 2026, driving an annual incremental demand of approximately 18,000 tons of high-purity manganese dioxide for aqueous zinc-manganese batteries. Second, the accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries globally, with pilot lines by Toyota and QuantumScape expected to come online in mid-2026, will drive demand for high-voltage LiNiMn2O4 (LNMO) cathode materials, representing a potential incremental demand of about 12,000 tons for high-purity manganese dioxide precursors. Third, the expansion of domestic automotive-grade chip packaging electronic functional ceramics will drive the annual growth rate of demand for products with purity above 99.99% to 22.5%.

### (3) Cost Side

- Sulfuric acid prices remain stable. Although manganese ore prices experienced a slight fluctuation earlier, weakening their bottom support, the decline has been contained as prices fell to low levels and no persistent negative factors emerged. Manufacturers’ willingness to support prices has strengthened, reducing the incentive to actively lower quotes. In July 2026, Jupiter announced an on-board price for Chinese shipments of Mn36.5% South African semi-carbonate lump ore at USD 4.7 per tonne-degree (a decrease of USD 0.1), while CML quoted Australian manganese lump ore at USD 5.6 per tonne-degree, a decrease of USD 0.2 from the previous round.

### (4) Import and Export

- **Exports**: In 2025, China’s manganese dioxide export volume decreased to 47,500 tons, with export value dropping to USD 99 million. Export destinations are concentrated in Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, India, and Germany. In 2025, these five regions accounted for 80% of China’s total manganese dioxide export value, with Indonesia being the largest destination at 30.6%. In 2026, the opportunity for Chinese high-purity manganese dioxide to enter global markets is shifting from \"tentative exports\" to \"systematic layout.\" Xiangtan Electrochemical Group has initiated preliminary work on a 5,000-ton annual high-purity manganese dioxide precursor project in Hungary. Southern Manganese Industry Group signed a memorandum of understanding for joint development of manganese resources and high-purity materials with Indonesian state-owned miner PT Aneka Tambang.

- **Imports**: In 2025, the global import trade scale of manganese dioxide showed volatility, with countries such as Indonesia and Germany maintaining certain import volumes.

## II. Analysis and Judgment

### (1) Short-Term Market

The domestic electrolytic manganese dioxide market is currently in a balanced phase of supply, demand, and cost dynamics. Supply is loose with reasonable inventory levels; demand is driven by spot purchases during the off-season with light trading; and costs are supported by stable sulfuric acid prices and manufacturers’ willingness to hold prices despite weaker manganese ore support. Overall, short-term EMD prices are expected to remain stable and oscillatory, with limited fluctuation range.

### (2) Medium-to-Long-Term Market

- **Industry Development Trends**: In 2026, China’s high-purity manganese dioxide industry will achieve a substantive leap from \"scale catch-up\" to \"value leadership,\" driven by the resonance of three factors: increased capacity utilization, upgraded technical standards (the \"Electronic Grade High Purity Manganese Dioxide\" group standard will be officially implemented in Q2 2026), and global supply chain reconfiguration. The industry boundaries will deepen toward function-oriented material systems, with single powder suppliers transforming into integrated service providers offering materials, process packages, and testing standards. Industry entry barriers will continue to rise.

- **Demand Growth Drivers**: Future demand growth in new energy storage, solid-state batteries, and domestic automotive-grade chip packaging will create significant incremental space for the high-purity manganese dioxide market, further expanding industry scale. In 2025, China’s high-purity manganese dioxide industry fully transitioned from laboratory verification and pilot scaling to large-scale commercial delivery, achieving a market size of RMB 2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%. Lithium-ion battery precursor applications accounted for 63.5% of this size. As demand grows, the share of each segment may shift.

## III. Forecast

### (1) Price Forecast

Domestic electrolytic manganese dioxide prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with limited overall fluctuation. In the medium-to-long term, driven by demand growth—particularly the release of demand in emerging fields for high-purity manganese dioxide—prices may rise if supply cannot keep pace. Overseas prices may experience fluctuations due to global economic conditions and trade policies but are expected to follow a trend similar to the domestic market, rising with increasing demand.

### (2) Supply and Demand Forecast

- **Supply**: Domestic high-purity manganese dioxide enterprises will continue to increase capacity utilization. New entrants and expansion plans by existing companies will gradually be implemented, enhancing supply capacity. However, as technical standards are upgraded, enterprises failing to meet requirements may be eliminated, optimizing the supply structure.

- **Demand**: Demand in traditional sectors such as primary batteries and lithium manganate will remain stable. Demand from emerging fields, including new energy storage, solid-state batteries, and domestic automotive-grade chip packaging, will become the primary growth drivers, propelling rapid overall demand growth.