Dicyandiamide

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. **Price Trends**
- The domestic market price of dicyandiamide has recently shown a stable and slightly rising trend. The mainstream market prices in major regions have increased by approximately 200–300 RMB/ton compared to the previous period, with current mainstream transaction prices ranging between 12,000 and 13,000 RMB/ton.
- Prices vary by product specifications, with high-purity dicyandiamide commanding relatively higher prices. The quotations for high-purity products from some enterprises have reached around 13,500 RMB/ton.

2. **Supply Situation**
- The overall operating rate of domestic dicyandiamide producers remains stable, maintaining between 70% and 75%. Some large-scale enterprises are operating normally and meeting market demand, while the operating rates of certain small and medium-sized enterprises fluctuate slightly due to environmental protection measures and cost factors.
- Recent equipment maintenance by some enterprises has led to a local reduction in supply. However, there is no significant shortage in the overall market supply.

3. **Demand Situation**
- Demand from downstream industries remains steady. The pharmaceutical, pesticide, and dye sectors show stable growth in demand for dicyandiamide. The pesticide industry accounts for the largest share, representing approximately 40%–45% of total demand.
- With the onset of winter, downstream enterprises in some northern regions have reduced their operating rates due to environmental production restrictions, leading to a slight slowdown in procurement demand for dicyandiamide.

4. **Import and Export Situation**
- **Imports:** Recent dicyandiamide import volumes have been low, primarily because domestic products can meet most of the market demand, and imported products lack price competitiveness due to higher costs.
- **Exports:** China’s dicyandiamide export volumes have maintained a stable growth trend. Main export destinations include India and Southeast Asia, where increasing demand provides favorable market space for Chinese exports.

5. **Cost Factors**
- The prices of main raw materials, such as calcium cyanamide and liquid ammonia, have remained stable recently. The market price of calcium cyanamide ranges from 2,800 to 3,000 RMB/ton, while liquid ammonia prices are between 3,000 and 3,200 RMB/ton. The stability of raw material prices provides a certain cost support for dicyandiamide pricing.


Analysis and Judgment

1. **Reasons for Slight Price Increase**
- Local supply reductions due to enterprise equipment maintenance have provided support to market prices.
- Stable growth in export volumes has alleviated domestic supply pressure, driving a modest price increase.

2. **Factors Contributing to Stable Demand**
- Overall downstream demand remains stable. However, environmental production restrictions in northern winter regions have suppressed operating rates and procurement demand for some enterprises, limiting the momentum for demand growth.

3. **Impact of Costs**
- Stable raw material prices have kept cost pressures on dicyandiamide producers relatively low. Under the influence of market supply and demand dynamics, enterprises can appropriately adjust prices based on market conditions.


Forecast

1. **Price Trends**
- **Short-term:** Dicyandiamide market prices will continue to exhibit a stable and slightly rising trend. As equipment maintenance concludes, supply will gradually recover. However, support from export demand and stable downstream demand will limit the downside price movement. Prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,000–13,500 RMB/ton.
- **Medium-to-long term:** If downstream demand continues to grow steadily and the export market remains robust, dicyandiamide prices may rise further. Conversely, if raw material prices fluctuate significantly or downstream operating rates drop sharply due to policy impacts, prices may experience a correction.

2. **Supply Situation**
- Over the coming period, the operating rates of domestic dicyandiamide producers will gradually return to normal levels, leading to an increase in market supply. However, with increasingly stringent environmental requirements, production by some small and medium-sized enterprises may be constrained, limiting the overall growth in supply.

3. **Demand Situation**
- Downstream demand will continue to grow steadily, particularly in the pesticide and pharmaceutical sectors. However, as winter deepens, the impact of environmental production restrictions in northern regions may persist, exerting a certain suppressive effect on demand growth.

4. **Import and Export Situation**
- **Imports:** Import volumes are expected to remain low, with the domestic market relying primarily on local production.
- **Exports:** Chinese dicyandiamide maintains a competitive advantage in the international market, and export volumes are expected to continue growing. However, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in international trade policies on exports.