Aniline

Aniline Market Dynamics Report (Recent Commodity Market Intelligence)

I. Price Trends
- Recent Price Movement:
- On April 24, 2026, the spot price of aniline stood at RMB 11,662.5 per metric ton, unchanged from the previous day. Prices remained flat over the past week but rose by RMB 1,000 per metric ton (a 9.38% increase) over the last month.
- On April 23, 2026, the spot price of aniline was also RMB 11,662.5 per metric ton, up by RMB 200 per metric ton (a 1.74% increase) week-on-week.

II. Supply and Demand Conditions
- Supply Side:
- The overall aniline operating rate remains around 60%, while the commercial-grade aniline operating load stands near 70%—both at mid-to-low levels.
- Frequent plant fluctuations continue: Nanhua’s 100,000-ton-per-year aniline unit experienced delayed restart; its other 30,000-ton-per-year unit suffered an unexpected shutdown; Shanxi Tianchi’s 260,000-ton-per-year aniline facility underwent a short-term shutdown. Collectively, these disruptions have kept industry-wide operating rates low.
- Several Shandong-based producers implemented temporary output reductions due to environmental regulatory controls, resulting in persistently tight market availability of tradable aniline supplies.

- Demand Side:
- Weak downstream demand for MDI remains the fundamental pressure on aniline pricing. Sustained sluggishness in the real estate sector has dampened MDI demand in construction insulation and furniture applications.
- Demand from auxiliary chemical sectors shows incremental growth, yet total demand growth is likely to lag behind supply growth.
- Export orders are injecting vitality into the market: Key Shandong-based manufacturers have secured export orders scheduled for delivery mid-month, effectively diverting domestic spot supply.

III. Cost Structure
- Benzene Price:
- Benzene prices recently exhibited frequent oscillations, with a stable trading range centered between RMB 5,300–5,350 per metric ton.
- A sharp decline in benzene prices previously provided downward room for aniline pricing, yet simultaneously capped its upside potential. With crude oil prices stabilizing and rebounding, benzene prices are expected to recover, offering cost support for aniline.

- Nitric Acid Price:
- The nitric acid market faces pronounced supply-demand imbalance: supply has increased significantly while demand absorption remains weak, leading to a sustained one-way price decline.
- Falling nitric acid prices have reduced the comprehensive production cost of aniline, pushing theoretical industry profit margins to approximately RMB 1,000 per metric ton—and further expansion of profit margins is anticipated.

Analysis & Assessment

I. Breaking the Market Stalemate
- Amid repeated plant fluctuations, the aniline market has maintained resilience through low inventory levels. With the confirmation of export orders by major Shandong-based producers, the supply-demand landscape is undergoing subtle yet meaningful shifts—heralding a breakthrough from the prolonged market stalemate.

II. Cost Support and Profit Margins
- The combined effect of benzene’s relatively firm price trend and nitric acid’s declining prices has lowered aniline’s comprehensive production cost. Meanwhile, aniline producers maintain stable offer prices, lifting theoretical industry profits to around RMB 1,000 per metric ton—with further margin expansion anticipated.

III. Impact of Export Orders
- Increased export orders have effectively diverted domestic spot supply, enabling producers to sustain low inventory levels—providing tangible support to the aniline market.

Outlook

I. Price Forecast
- Aniline prices in 2026 are projected to fluctuate within the range of RMB 8,000–10,000 per metric ton. The annual average price is expected to rise modestly by 5–8% year-on-year compared to 2025.
- Prices may follow a 'weak-first, strong-later' pattern, though the annual average is forecast to decline slightly year-on-year.

II. Supply-Demand Outlook
- The supply-demand imbalance in China’s aniline market is expected to ease somewhat in 2026, although structural pressure will persist. Total output is projected at ~4.2 million metric tons, with demand at ~4.0 million metric tons—resulting in a supply deficit of ~200,000 metric tons, markedly narrower than the 350,000-ton deficit recorded in 2025.
- On the supply side, gradual phase-out of outdated capacity and more rational capital investment will significantly slow down capacity expansion.
- On the demand side, downstream demand is expected to recover moderately, supported by pro-growth macroeconomic policies.

III. Key Influencing Factors
- Capacity Growth Rate: New aniline capacity additions in 2026 are expected to total only 25,000 tons—far below the 540,000 tons added in 2025—thus alleviating supply-side pressure.
- Cost Support: As crude oil prices stabilize and rebound, benzene prices are poised to recover, reinforcing cost-based support for aniline.
- Demand Recovery: With the real estate market bottoming out and stabilizing—and downstream restocking demand gradually emerging—demand for key derivatives such as MDI is expected to halt its decline and rebound.
- Export Variable: Continued growth in export orders remains a critical determinant of aniline pricing; international market demand developments warrant close monitoring.