Aniline

Aniline Market Dynamics Report (Recent Commodity Market Intelligence)

1. **Price Trend**
- In late June 2026, aniline prices exhibited a downward trend. On June 23, the Base Price of aniline published by Shengyishe stood at RMB 9,525.00 per ton. Subsequently, several regional producers adjusted their quotations downward—for instance, Chongqing Changfeng Chemical reduced its aniline price by RMB 300/ton to RMB 9,500/ton; Dongying Caijin Chemical also lowered its aniline price by RMB 300/ton. As of June 27, the Shengyishe aniline base price stood at RMB 9,225.00 per ton.

2. **Supply Situation**
- Domestic aniline operating rates have recently increased overall. As of July 21, 2025, the national aniline operating rate reached 80.59%, up by 10.73 percentage points week-on-week. Specifically, the commercial-grade aniline operating rate was 74.67%, while the MDI-integrated producers’ operating rate stood at 83.42%. The increase in operating rates was primarily driven by higher loadings at Huatai, Jinmao, and Tianshi facilities, as well as the resumption of normal operations at major integrated aniline–MDI plants—transitioning supply conditions from previously tight to gradually looser.
- Regarding capacity expansion in 2026, Nanjing Chemical’s new 300,000-ton-per-year aniline facility and Wanhua Fujian’s additional 360,000-ton-per-year aniline unit are scheduled to commence operation, further boosting overall aniline supply.

3. **Demand Situation**
- **Domestic Demand**: Rubber chemicals and MDI represent traditional major downstream applications for aniline, yet demand performance has diverged. The rubber chemicals sector remains weak but stable, with sluggish end-user purchasing. Meanwhile, MDI producers have resumed operations following maintenance shutdowns: the weekly MDI operating rate rose from 67.16% to 77.19% during the week ending July 21, 2025. Demand recovery, coupled with limited spot availability, has tightened the polymer MDI market and provided modest support to aniline prices.
- **Overseas Demand**: External demand remains robust, and export performance is strong—keeping producer inventory pressure low. Major export destinations include India, Russia, and Belgium, collectively accounting for 87.4% of total aniline exports.

4. **Cost Situation**
- Benzene is the core raw material for aniline production, and its price trend exerts a decisive influence on the aniline market. Recently, the benzene market has experienced narrow-range fluctuations, offering limited cost support to aniline. In July 2025, benzene prices oscillated—averaging RMB 5,942/ton on July 1 and RMB 5,988/ton on July 29, reflecting a monthly gain of only 0.74%. Looking ahead, underlying benzene demand remains steady, supported by restarts of downstream units and expected commissioning of new facilities. However, widespread losses across the downstream value chain have heightened resistance to high-priced feedstocks, increasing upward pressure on benzene prices. Overall, benzene prices are anticipated to remain range-bound.

Analysis & Assessment
1. **Pricing Analysis**: Recent aniline price declines stem primarily from loosening supply conditions and inadequate cost support. Higher operating rates have lifted output, whereas domestic demand—particularly from rubber chemicals—remains subdued. Although MDI demand recovery offers some offsetting support, it is insufficient to fully absorb the expanded supply. Concurrently, benzene’s narrow-range price movement fails to provide meaningful cost-based uplift, resulting in downward pricing pressure.
2. **Supply–Demand Balance**: The current supply–demand equilibrium remains broadly stable—but with a clear upward bias in supply. Domestic demand shows mixed signals, while overseas demand performs strongly. Sustained low inventories among producers largely reflect robust export volumes. Nevertheless, further supply increases from upcoming capacity additions may disrupt this balance unless domestic demand improves significantly.
3. **Cost–Price Relationship**: Aniline pricing closely tracks its cost basis—especially benzene prices—which exert pronounced influence on aniline market dynamics. Aniline prices typically adjust in tandem with benzene price movements to preserve reasonable profit margins.

Outlook & Forecast
1. **Price Forecast**: In the short term, aniline prices are likely to continue consolidating within a narrow range. Limited benzene price upside offers little cost support, and the prevailing supply surplus is unlikely to ease imminently. While MDI demand provides partial counterbalance, overall domestic demand growth remains muted. Export strength, however, may help alleviate some supply pressure. Over the longer term, stabilized and potentially rising crude oil prices could lift benzene costs, thereby providing stronger cost support for aniline. Accordingly, aniline prices in 2026 are projected to fluctuate within the RMB 8,000–10,000/ton range, with an average annual price increase of 5–8% year-on-year versus 2025.
2. **Supply–Demand Forecast**: China’s aniline market will see easing—but not elimination—of supply–demand tensions in 2026. Total annual production is forecast at approximately 4.2 million tons, against demand of ~4.0 million tons, narrowing the supply–demand gap to ~200,000 tons—down markedly from 350,000 tons in 2025. On the supply side, phasing out of outdated capacity and more rational capital investment are expected to significantly moderate the pace of capacity expansion. On the demand side, supportive macroeconomic stabilization policies may foster mild downstream demand recovery; however, overall demand growth is likely to lag behind supply growth. Exports will remain the critical variable influencing market pricing.