Adipic acid

Adipic Acid Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analysis Forecast

I. Recent Market Price Dynamics
- Benchmark Price Movement: According to B2B Chemical Network (Shengyishe) data, the benchmark price of adipic acid on July 28, 2026, stood at RMB 8,266.67 per ton, representing a 5.76% increase from RMB 7,816.67 per ton on July 1. However, the overall July trend exhibited a pattern of rising first then falling; by July 29, the market average price had declined to RMB 7,066 per ton—a 4.07% decrease month-on-month.
- Regional Quotation Disparities:
Shandong Province: Mainstream quotations ranged between RMB 7,600–8,400 per ton—for example, Hualu Hengsheng quoted RMB 8,400 per ton on July 28, while Qingdao Shengze Chemical offered RMB 7,600–7,800 per ton.
Jiangsu Province: Quotations ranged from RMB 7,300–8,150 per ton—for instance, Nanjing Waien Chemical quoted RMB 8,150 per ton for Hualu Hengsheng-branded material.
Hubei Province: Hubei Qiba Jiu Chemical quoted RMB 8,500 per ton; industrial-grade product was priced at RMB 7 per kilogram.
Guangdong Province: Guangzhou Tianyue Chemical quoted RMB 8,700 per ton for Liaohua-branded material and RMB 8,600 per ton for Shandong Haili-branded material.

II. Market Driving Factor Analysis
1. Supply-Side Factors
- Capacity Expansion: China’s adipic acid capacity grew by 2.9% year-on-year in 2025, with output increasing by 9.1% and operating rates averaging 65.4%. An additional 1.25 million tons/year of capacity is expected over the next two years—including projects by Fujian Fuhua Gulai and Shenma Nylon Technology. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 450,000-ton/year facility is scheduled to commence operations in H2 2026.
- Plant Maintenance: Concentrated maintenance during Q2 2024 led to supply contraction; however, no large-scale maintenance plans are scheduled for 2026, resulting in generally ample supply.

2. Demand-Side Factors
- Downstream Consumption Structure:
Nylon 66 accounts for ~61% (fiber-grade: 33%; engineering resin-grade: 26%), polyester polyols account for 25%, plasticizers 4.5%, and other applications 11.5%.
Engineering resin-grade Nylon 66 demand grows at an average annual rate of 4%, driven by substitution of metal components in automotive applications; polyester polyol demand grows at 6% annually, boosting non-nylon end-use consumption.
- Export Market:
In 2025, China’s net adipic acid exports totaled 526,000 tons—up 8.9% YoY—with primary destinations being Turkey, India, and the Netherlands (collectively accounting for 38.7% of total exports).
The EU’s final anti-dumping ruling (May 2026) reduced China’s export share to the EU from 22% to 10.04%. Nevertheless, exporters have partially offset this impact by expanding into “Belt and Road”, Southeast Asian, and Middle Eastern markets.

3. Cost-Side Factors
- Raw material benzene prices remain elevated, influenced by crude oil and overseas markets; however, supply tightness eased in Q2 2026, weakening cost support.

III. Market Contradictions and Risks
- Oversupply Conditions: Capacity growth (10.7%) outpaces demand growth (9.5%), and operating rates are projected to rise modestly—exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Trade Barriers: EU anti-dumping duties (29.1%–42.3%) raise local procurement costs and erode regional manufacturing competitiveness. Amid global trade restructuring, Chinese exporters must accelerate diversification strategies.
- Price Volatility: The July price swing—rising then falling—reflects divergent market expectations regarding supply-demand fundamentals; close attention is warranted toward new-capacity ramp-up timing and downstream order follow-through.

IV. Future Trend Outlook
1. Price Trend
- Short-Term: Following July’s volatility, prices are expected to trade within a range of RMB 7,800–8,500 per ton. Caution is advised regarding potential supply shocks arising from Zhejiang Petrochemical’s upcoming project commissioning.
- Medium-to-Long Term: As new capacities come online, the price center of gravity may shift lower; however, robust demand growth from engineering resins and polyester polyols could provide countervailing support.

2. Supply-Demand Landscape
- Supply: Capacity is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 10.7% from 2023–2027, while demand expands at 9.5%—gradually narrowing the supply-demand gap and potentially pressuring industry operating rates.
- Demand: Engineering resin-grade Nylon 66 and polyester polyols will serve as key growth engines; enterprises should prioritize high-end R&D to enhance value-added capabilities.

3. Trade Flow Evolution
- Exports: EU market share decline is being offset by rapid expansion into “Belt and Road”, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East—requiring deeper regional market penetration.
- Imports: With domestic overcapacity, import volumes are expected to remain low—primarily serving differentiated high-end niche requirements.

V. Strategic Recommendations
- Corporate Level: Optimize capacity deployment to avoid blind expansion; intensify R&D investment to overcome bottlenecks in high-end product development; strictly comply with international trade regulations to mitigate anti-dumping exposure.
- Investor Level: Monitor key industry leaders (e.g., Huafeng Chemical, Shenma Co., Ltd.) for changes in capacity utilization and gross margin—capitalizing on cyclical opportunities; remain vigilant against industry consolidation risks triggered by losses among smaller producers.