Adipic acid

Recent Market Intelligence Report on Adipic Acid

I. Price Dynamics
1. **Benchmark Price**: As of July 8, 2026, the business community’s benchmark price for adipic acid stands at RMB 7,816.67 per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous few days.
2. **Market Quotations**:
- Prices in the East China region remain relatively stable, with mainstream quotations ranging between RMB 7,800–8,000 per ton.
- In Shandong Province, quotations from certain producers have declined; for example, Shandong Dehe Chemical Co., Ltd. reduced its adipic acid quotation to RMB 7,500 per ton—a decrease of RMB 300 per ton.
- Quotations vary across brands and specifications: BASF’s 99.9% purity grade is quoted at RMB 8,200 per ton, while Hualu Hengsheng’s premium-grade (≥99.7% purity) product is priced at RMB 8,000 per ton.

3. **Historical Price Trend**:
- Recent adipic acid prices have exhibited an inverted “U-shaped” trend—peaking mid-period and declining thereafter.
- Price volatility was pronounced in June: the benchmark price stood at RMB 7,983.33 per ton at the beginning of the month and declined by month-end.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
1. **Supply Side**:
- Domestic adipic acid capacity continues to expand, with total capacity projected to reach 4.455 million tons in 2026, while output remains stable at approximately 2.77 million tons.
- Industry-wide operating rates are expected to hover around 60%, representing a historically low level.
- Several manufacturers recently conducted plant maintenance—e.g., Pingmei Shenma Holding’s Nylon Chemical Plant No. 2 carried out scheduled maintenance on its adipic acid production facility, temporarily constraining supply.
- On the new-capacity front, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 450,000-ton-per-year adipic acid project is underway and expected to commence operations in the second half of 2026.

2. **Demand Side**:
- Downstream sectors—including nylon 66, poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT), and thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU)—are planning new capacity additions totaling 635,000 tons. However, demand growth from traditional downstream applications such as coating resins and shoe sole casting materials remains limited.
- Downstream industries currently operate below full capacity, exhibiting strong resistance to high raw material prices; procurement is largely driven by immediate operational needs.
- Seasonal factors—including upcoming holidays such as the Spring Festival—have prompted downstream enterprises to gradually enter holiday shutdown mode; pre-holiday inventory replenishment is conducted in small batches and strictly on-demand.

III. Import-Export Situation
1. **Exports**:
- In May 2026, China exported 39,173.49 metric tons of adipic acid and its salts and esters—a decline from the prior month.
- The European Union’s preliminary anti-dumping ruling and the formal implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are expected to significantly curtail exports to the EU; companies are accelerating the reallocation of trade flows toward promising markets in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa.

2. **Imports**:
- In May 2026, China imported 1,008.84 metric tons of adipic acid and its salts and esters—a substantial increase compared to the previous month.

IV. Market Analysis
1. **Cost Support**:
- International crude oil prices are projected to experience a modest downward shift in their central tendency, potentially weakening cost support for adipic acid.
- Benzene—the direct feedstock for adipic acid—is also expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations, thereby exerting secondary influence on adipic acid production costs.

2. **Inventory Factors**:
- Industry inventory levels remain manageable; however, sluggish downstream transmission has led to a market stalemate.
- Inventory levels significantly influence price dynamics: higher inventories tend to reduce price sensitivity to demand fluctuations.

3. **Market Sentiment**:
- Overall market sentiment remains relatively stable; however, constrained supply and seasonal demand weakness have dampened trading activity.
- Trading practices—such as full-payment upfront procurement by traders and month-end settlement based on monthly average prices—effectively restrict speculative hoarding and price manipulation.

V. Outlook and Forecast
1. **Price Trend**:
- Adipic acid prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, continuing the overall “high-then-low” pattern.
- Should international crude oil prices persistently decline or downstream operating rates further deteriorate, prices may face additional downward pressure.

2. **Supply-Demand Balance**:
- With gradual commissioning of new capacity and only modest downstream demand growth, the supply-demand balance is anticipated to remain loose.
- Green transformation and high-end development will define industry evolution going forward; emerging products—including bio-based adipic acid—are expected to gradually gain market share.

3. **Market Opportunities**:
- Enterprises possessing technological and environmental advantages stand to benefit significantly amid green transformation and high-end upgrading.
- Regarding export markets, priority expansion targets will include neighboring Asian countries, the Middle East, and Africa.