Allicin

Recent Commodity Market Dynamics

1. Price Trends
- Over the past week, the average domestic market price of diallyl disulfide fluctuated within the range of RMB 12,500 to 13,000 per ton. Starting at RMB 12,600 per ton at the beginning of the week, it decreased to RMB 12,800 per ton by the end of the week, exhibiting an overall trend of initial decline followed by a rebound.
- In the international market, the price of diallyl disulfide oscillated between USD 1,800 and 1,900 per ton, influenced by exchange rate fluctuations and international trade policies. The price stood at USD 1,820 per ton at the beginning of the week and rose to USD 1,880 per ton by the end of the week.

2. Supply Situation
- The operating rate of major domestic producers remained around 75% to 80%. Although some enterprises temporarily halted production for equipment maintenance, the overall supply was not significantly affected, and market supply remained relatively ample.
- Regarding imports, the volume of cargo arriving in recent weeks has increased, primarily from Southeast Asia. Due to a decline in ocean freight rates, import costs have slightly decreased. Importers have been actively shipping goods, supplementing part of the domestic market demand.

3. Demand Situation
- Demand from downstream industries such as pesticides and dyes remains stable, with procurement volumes proceeding as planned without significant fluctuations. As the peak season for spring pesticide application approaches, some pesticide companies have begun advance stockpiling, leading to an expected potential growth in demand for diallyl disulfide.
- In terms of export demand, influenced by the recovery of international market demand, export orders have increased, particularly from Europe and South America. Given the high quality requirements for diallyl disulfide in these regions, export enterprises have actively organized production to fulfill order demands.

4. Inventory Situation
- Domestic social inventory remains at a moderate level, approximately 2,000 to 2,500 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week. Producer inventory is maintained within a reasonable range, enabling timely response to market demand.
- Port inventory has risen due to increased import volumes, currently standing at approximately 800 to 1,000 tons. However, overall inventory pressure remains low.

Analysis and Judgment

1. Reasons for Price Fluctuations
- The initial decline followed by a rebound in domestic prices is mainly driven by adjustments in market supply and demand. At the beginning of the week, active sales by some enterprises led to a slightly loose market supply, putting downward pressure on prices. By the end of the week, increased procurement by downstream enterprises tightened the supply-demand balance, causing prices to rebound.
- The rise in international prices is primarily attributed to exchange rate fluctuations and favorable international trade policies. The weakening of the US dollar has relatively increased the price of diallyl disulfide priced in USD. Additionally, the reduction of import tariffs in some countries has stimulated international market demand.

2. Impact of Supply and Demand Dynamics
- The supply side remains generally stable; although some enterprises underwent maintenance, the impact was limited, and increased imports supplemented market supply. On the demand side, downstream industries show stable demand with potential for future growth, while increased export demand further boosts the market. Overall, the supply-demand relationship provides certain support for prices.

3. Impact of Inventory
- Domestic social and producer inventories are at reasonable levels. Although port inventory has increased, the pressure is not significant. Inventory conditions have a minimal impact on price fluctuations, with market prices primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics.

Forecast

1. Price Forecast
- In the short term, the domestic price of diallyl disulfide is expected to fluctuate within the range of RMB 12,800 to 13,200 per ton. As the spring pesticide application peak season approaches, increased downstream demand may drive prices higher.
- In the international market, influenced by ongoing exchange rate fluctuations and international trade policies, prices are expected to operate within the range of USD 1,880 to 1,950 per ton. If international market demand continues to recover, prices may break through USD 1,950 per ton.

2. Supply and Demand Forecast
- On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic producers is expected to remain at a high level. Import volumes may fluctuate depending on international market prices and demand conditions, but overall supply is expected to meet market needs.
- On the demand side, demand from downstream industries such as pesticides and dyes is expected to continue growing steadily. Export demand is also expected to increase further as the international market recovers, indicating an upward trend in overall market demand.

3. Market Risk Warning
- Attention should be paid to international exchange rate fluctuations and changes in international trade policies, as these factors may significantly impact international market prices and import/export activities.
- Stricter domestic environmental protection policies may affect the production of some enterprises, leading to reduced supply. It is necessary to closely monitor relevant policy developments.