-
We detected your language preference as English. Would you like to switch to the English version for a better experience?
Switch to English
Stay here
Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia are the leading exporters of nickel globally, accounting for the majority of seaborne nickel ore and refined nickel shipments, while China remains the dominant importer—consuming over half of world nickel supply for stainless steel and battery production—and is followed by Japan, South Korea, and Germany. Recent years have seen a structural shift toward increased Indonesian nickel exports amid rapid downstream smelter development, coinciding with volatility in Nickel prices driven by EV battery demand and export policy changes.
Nickel Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast
I. Market Intelligence
(A) Price Trends
1. Domestic Market: On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) nickel main contract for September 2025 (NI2509) opened at RMB 121,910/ton, reached a high of RMB 122,440/ton, a low of RMB 121,220/ton, and closed at RMB 121,800/ton—a decline of RMB 1,040/ton, or -0.85%. The Yangtze River Composite Grade 1 nickel price stood at RMB 121,550–123,750/ton, with an average of RMB 122,650/ton, down RMB 900/ton from the previous day. The Yangtze River Spot Grade 1 nickel price was RMB 121,650–123,650/ton, averaging RMB 122,650/ton, also down RMB 900/ton. Guangdong spot nickel prices ranged from RMB 123,900 to RMB 124,300/ton, averaging RMB 124,100/ton, down RMB 800/ton from the prior day. On July 28, 2026, the SHFE nickel main contract (NIM) closed at RMB 132,800/ton, opening at RMB 132,970/ton, with a daily high of RMB 133,260/ton and a low of RMB 130,120/ton.
2. International Market: On July 14, 2026, London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel opened at USD 16,710.00/ton, hit a high of USD 16,885.00/ton, and a low of USD 16,710.00/ton. For the week ending July 24, 2026, LME nickel futures settled at USD 17,310.0/ton, posting a weekly gain of +1.55%, with a high of USD 17,500.0/ton, a low of USD 16,880.0/ton, and a weekly average of USD 17,153.00/ton.
(B) Supply Situation
1. Indonesia: Total nickel ore export quota was reduced by 2.6 million tons in 2026, with uneven allocation among enterprises—e.g., Weda Bay’s allocation plummeted from 420,000 tons in 2025 to just 120,000 tons. Following the end of the 2025 rainy season, mine shipment volumes increased month-on-month, and local nickel pig iron (NPI) producers gradually restored raw material inventories to safe levels; NPI output remained elevated. However, in 2026, escalating tensions over nickel ore quotas drove raw material prices sharply higher, intensifying cost pressures that dampened smelters’ production willingness. Combined with holiday-related disruptions (e.g., Chinese New Year), NPI output declined month-on-month in certain months.
2. Philippines: In July 2025, typhoon-related logistical disruptions hindered loading and shipments, prompting upward adjustments in nickel ore prices. During February 2026, seasonal supply constraints intensified amid persistent rainy-season conditions, while policy uncertainty surrounding the Revised Mining Act (RKAB) further widened Indonesia’s nickel ore demand gap—leading most available supply to be redirected toward the Indonesian market.
3. Others: Middle East supply disruptions triggered sulfur shortages in early 2026, constraining Indonesia’s high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) capacity. Huayou’s PT Huafei reduced output by 50% effective May 1, while other HPAL projects implemented ~10% output cuts, collectively reducing supply by 34,000 tons. QMB (landslide-affected) and Gunbuster (parent company bankruptcy) together cut output by 89,000 tons.
(C) Demand Situation
1. Stainless Steel Industry: In July 2025, after initial optimism from “anti-overcompetition” policies faded, stainless steel prices traded weakly and sideways; traders replenished stocks only on a just-in-time basis, while inventory drawdown remained sluggish—diminishing nickel demand support. In February 2026, China’s stainless steel crude steel output totaled 2.49 million tons, down 26.3% month-on-month and 17.3% year-on-year; 300-series output stood at 1.19 million tons, down 33.5% MoM and 27.0% YoY—primarily constrained by seasonal maintenance and cost pressures.
2. New Energy Sector: In July 2025, growth in ternary battery installations decelerated, prompting battery manufacturers to adopt cautious procurement strategies for high-nickel ternary cathode materials, resulting in slower growth in sulfate nickel demand. In February 2026, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales reached 694,000 and 765,000 units respectively—down 21.8% and 14.2% YoY. According to the Power Battery Innovation Alliance, combined power and energy storage battery output in China totaled 141.6 GWh in February—down 15.7% MoM but up 41.3% YoY. Ternary battery output amounted to 26.9 GWh—down 13.8% MoM but up 39.7% YoY.
(D) Inventory Status
As of July 28, 2026, SHFE nickel inventory stood at 115,851.00 tons. In February 2026, China’s primary nickel market registered a surplus of approximately 30,300 nickel tons, with the surplus widening.
II. Analysis and Assessment
(A) Macroeconomic Influences
On July 29, 2025, macroeconomic conditions were characterized by “persistent inflation, sustained USD strength, and geopolitical volatility.” Industrial metals exhibited divergent performance under the interplay of policy expectations and supply-demand imbalances. Market participants closely monitored the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, alongside the looming August 1 deadline for U.S. tariff adjustments. Risk-averse sentiment and tightening liquidity contributed to continued weak and range-bound trading across nonferrous metals—including nickel.
(B) Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side: Although Indonesian nickel ore supply has fluctuated, overall output remains robust; meanwhile, domestic refined nickel capacity continues ramping up, sustaining a relatively loose supply environment. Nevertheless, 2026’s ore quota cuts, sulfur shortages, and selective production cuts have exerted modest contractionary pressure on supply.
2. Demand Side: Nickel demand from both stainless steel and new energy sectors has softened. Stainless steel producers face sluggish inventory digestion and mounting cost pressures, curtailing production intent. In the new energy sector, slowing ternary battery installation growth has led to more conservative procurement of high-nickel cathode materials, resulting in subdued sulfate nickel demand growth.
3. Inventory: Rising inventory accumulation expectations are exerting downward pressure on nickel prices.
III. Outlook
(A) Short-Term Forecast
Nickel prices are expected to remain weak and range-bound in the near term. Incremental supply is progressively materializing, while demand shows no near-term catalysts for upside surprise. Strengthening inventory accumulation expectations—compounded by generally bearish macro sentiment—leave little impetus for price rallies.
(B) Long-Term Forecast
Should sulfur shortages persist beyond June 2026, HPAL operations may incur an additional 50,000-ton output reduction, nudging the market toward balance; annual average prices could stabilize near USD 19,000/ton. Conversely, absent further supply disruptions and given elevated visible inventories, prices are unlikely to sustainably exceed USD 20,000/ton. Should stainless steel or new energy demand recover meaningfully, nickel prices may find renewed support and rebound.
Nickel is a lustrous, silvery-white metallic element that is solid at room temperature, odorless, and non-volatile, with a melting point of 1455 °C and a boiling point of 2913 °C. It is classified as a transition metal and is typically supplied in forms such as powder, pellets, or ingots. Nickel serves as a key catalyst in hydrogenation, carbonylation, and cross-coupling reactions and is widely used in the production of stainless steel, superalloys, and rechargeable batteries. Its primary application areas include metallurgy, electroplating, electronics, and the manufacture of corrosion-resistant alloys for aerospace, energy, and chemical processing equipment.
The most important applications of nickel metal involve its use in numerous alloys. Such alloys are used to construct various equipment, reaction vessels, plumbing parts, missile, and aerospace components. Such nickel-based alloys include Monel, Inconel, Hastelloy, Nichrome, Duranickel, Udinet, Incoloy and many other alloys under various other trade names. The metal itself has some major uses. Nickel anodes are used for nickel plating of many base metals to enhance their resistance to corrosion. Nickel-plated metals are used in various equipment, machine parts, printing plates, and many household items such as scissors, keys, clips, pins, and decorative pieces. Nickel powder is used as porous electrodes in storage batteries and fuel cells.Another major industrial use of nickel is in catalysis. Nickel and raney nickel are used in catalytic hydrogenation or dehydrogenation of organic compounds including olefins, fats, and oils.
silver white, hard, malleable metal chunks or grey powder
This chemical is included in Basic Chemicals - Lithium Battery Materials. See more about what is Nickel and Nickel SDS information.
Find Nickel supply and Nickel suppliers on Guidechem to meet your sourcing needs from 271 trusted and certifedsuppliers.
Guidechem assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site. The information contained in this site is provided on an “as is” basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness, fitness for purpose or timeliness.
EN
