Cobalt

Cobalt Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market:
- According to Binsse Data, the benchmark cobalt price in China was RMB 381,000/ton on July 6, 2026, down from RMB 384,200/ton on July 3, reflecting a volatile downward trend.
- On July 7, spot cobalt prices were reported as follows: RMB 382,500/ton at Shanghai Huatong Nonferrous Metals Market; RMB 378,000/ton at Guangdong Nanchu Nonferrous Metals Market; and RMB 385,000/ton at Shanghai Market.
- According to CBC Metal Network, the national average price for electrolytic cobalt stood at RMB 385,750/ton on July 7, 2026.

- International Market:
- Per Mysteel data, the standard-grade cobalt metal price was quoted at USD 50,001–50,556/ton on July 3, 2026, representing a decline of USD 998/ton from the previous day.
- The London Metal Exchange (LME) cobalt spot price also exhibited volatility; however, specific figures require reference to the latest official data.

2. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
- The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world’s core cobalt raw material producing region, implemented an annual export quota of 96,600 metric tons in 2026—a substantial reduction compared to prior years. Coupled with intensified environmental inspections and temporary mine controls, raw material arrivals at ports have been intermittent.
- Incremental nickel-cobalt co-products from Indonesia remain limited, while recycled cobalt volumes are insufficient to bridge the supply gap. Consequently, the fundamental structural shortage of cobalt globally persists.
- Cobalt raw material shipping cycles span 45–60 days; even under normal shipment schedules within the quota, timely replenishment of domestic supply shortages remains challenging.

- Demand Side:
- In the power battery sector, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries continue displacing ternary cathode materials, leading to slower overall growth in ternary demand. Nevertheless, high-nickel ternary batteries for power applications remain the largest consumer of cobalt salts.
- The 3C consumer electronics sector is experiencing pronounced seasonal weakness; cobalt oxide producers are primarily drawing down existing inventories, with insufficient new order volume.
- Traditional industrial demand—e.g., from cemented carbides and catalysts—remains stable but exerts negligible upward pressure on market dynamics.

3. Inventory Status
- Raw material inventories at domestic cobalt smelters, ternary precursor manufacturers, and cobalt oxide producers are all at historically low levels. The industry widely adopts a “just-in-time procurement” model, resulting in relatively weak risk-resilience across the value chain.
- During early Q3, incremental intermediate cobalt materials are gradually arriving at ports, offering a brief window of relative market looseness. However, from late August onward, the DRC’s H2 export quota will approach exhaustion, tightening available tradable supply in the market.

Analysis & Assessment

1. Reasons for Price Volatility:
- Cobalt price fluctuations stem from the interplay of three key factors: raw material supply constraints, geopolitical events, and downstream demand dynamics. On the supply side, the DRC’s reduced export quota, inconsistent raw material shipments, and limited incremental nickel-cobalt co-production from Indonesia collectively contribute to tight raw material availability.
- On the demand side, slowing growth in the power battery segment and subdued seasonal activity in the 3C electronics sector have weakened overall cobalt product demand.

2. Market Sentiment:
- Traders hold relatively optimistic outlooks for future prices and maintain firm quotations.
- Smelters, meanwhile, face sluggish recovery in finished cobalt product pricing and incomplete cost pass-through, resulting in cautious purchasing behavior—largely restricted to meeting immediate production needs.
- Downstream alloy and magnetic materials producers report insufficient new orders and rely predominantly on internal inventory consumption, engaging only in sporadic, just-in-time procurement. Overall trading activity remains muted.

Forecast

1. Short-Term Outlook:
- The cobalt market is expected to persist in a “dual-weakness” scenario—characterized by both subdued supply and soft demand—leaving little room for significant price rebound. However, robust cost support will likely limit further downside.
- With intermediate cobalt materials gradually arriving at ports during early Q3, a short-lived period of relative market ease may sustain ongoing price volatility and downward pressure. Yet, beginning late August, as the DRC’s H2 export quota nears depletion, tradable supply will tighten, potentially stabilizing and then lifting cobalt prices.

2. Medium-to-Long-Term Outlook:
- In H2 2026, the cobalt market is projected to maintain a structural supply constraint, accompanied by gradually recovering demand and solidified cost floors.
- Rising operating rates among overseas ternary precursor and cathode material producers—driven by increased export orders—and the upcoming pre-holiday inventory buildup phase in the 3C electronics sector are expected to drive notable demand growth.
- Cobalt metal prices are forecast to range between RMB 380,000–400,000/ton in H2 2026, with the overall market trajectory following a pattern of “initial consolidation at lows, followed by seasonal strength, and concluding at elevated levels.”